This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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to avoid long delays. Enquire now INDICES AUSTRALASIA ASX – 6450 ( -125 or -1.9% ) The ASX has sold off for its 3rd consecutive week following new all time highs. We will be discussing this again in the MEMBER PORTAL . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6435. Should this occur, we will look for a test of 6500, and above this 6550. If momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6670. If the ASX cannot hold above 6435, we will look for a move back down to 6350 for strong support. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6276, and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6180.
EUROPE DAX – 11567 ( -166 or -1.41% ) The DAX was also weaker last week but has this market managed to catch a few shorts on the long side? We will find out for sure this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 17:30 – German Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI Thu 21:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX close strongly above the 11755 – 11790 area. Should this occur, we will look for a retest 11875. If momentum is very strong, a break and close above this level could see another push higher into 12054. If the DAX fails to close above 11755, we will look for a move back down to 11362 before a potential pause. If this market continues to sell-off, a very strong move down into 11050 cannot be ruled out.
US SP500 – 2891 ( -33 or -1.13% ) We’ve said it time and time again. The US continues to lead global equities and last week was no surprise, staging a decent recovery albeit not enough to finish the week green. We will again be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 22:30 – CPI (monthly) Thu 22:30 – Retail Sales (monthly), Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Fri 22:30 – Building Permits Sat 00:00 – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 2902. Should this occur we will look for a move to 2922, and potentially 2941 again before a pause. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 2960 and 2985. If we cannot close above 2902, we could see this market retest 2838. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2812; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a very sharp move down into 2800 and 2785.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.6776 ( -8 or -0.12% ) The Aussie Dollar remained flat all week as speculation on the RBA’s next move increases. We will be discussing the significance of this exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.6762. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of of 0.6875, and if upside momentum remains very strong, we may see a push higher into 0.6934 before a pause. If the AUD cannot hold above 0.6762, we will look for a retest of 0.6706. A break and close below this level sets the stage for a larger move down to 0.6598.
EUR/USD – 1.1089 ( -111 or -0.99% ) The Euro is testing some very big levels now and we are watching this market very closely as some of our technical indicators are beginning to line up. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 18:00 – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI Thu 21:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts For a move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1197 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a retest into 1.1249 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1335 before a further pause. If the EURO cannot close above 1.1197, we could see a bigger push down into 1.1033 before a pause. A strong break of this level may however result in a fast move down into 1.0977 before the week’s end.
GBP/USD – 1.2146 ( +121 or +1.01% ) Unlike the Euro, the Pound managed to find some support last week but is it enough? We will be discussing the significance of this exclusively in the MEMBER PORTAL . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Wed 18:30 – Public Sector Net Borrowing For a continued move to the upside, we need to see Cable hold above 1.2100. Should this occur we will love for a move back up into 1.2195, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a strong push into 1.2297. On the downside, if the Pound cannot hold above 1.2100, we are likely to see a quick move down into 1.2000. A break below this level could see a fast move down to 1.1896, and below this we have a major level at 1.1706.
USD/JPY – 106.36 ( +75 or +0.71% ) This week Japan returns to a full week and following an increase in volatility over the past few weeks, will we see this trend continue?. For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 106.52, on its way to retesting 107.25 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 107.75, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 108.31 and 108.70. If we cannot close above 106.52, we could see a fast move lower into 105.50. A break below this level may result in a retest of 104.97 and this is where things get very interesting. A break below this level could mean a very sharp move down to 103.39.
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1512 ( +16 or +1.07% ) As we stated last week “Gold continues to outperform however this market is now moving into an area of heavy resistance..” Is there a surprise in store this week? We will be discussing the significance of this exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1505. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1526 ; and if momentum remains very strong, a strong break above this level could see Gold rally quickly into 1540 and 1552. If Gold cannot hold above 1505, we will look for a move back down into 1480. A strong break and close below this level could send this market lower into 1470, and if momentum is strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into 1450.
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