This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES
ASX – 5707 ( +36 or +0.63% )
The ASX is now in a very precarious position and we are watching this market very closely. We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX close above 5746. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 5777, and a strong close above this could result in a quick move to 5823. If momentum is strong we will then look for a rally into 5875 and 5921.
If the ASX cannot close and hold above 5746, we are likely to see a quick move down into 5671 and 5648. A close below this level may result in more selling into 5606 and if momentum is very strong a move down into 5582 and 5521 cannot be ruled out.
EUROPE
DAX – 12533 ( +239 or +1.94% )
The DAX took a breather last week right at our key level of 12566 posted last week, and we are now looking for a strong directional move. Will this be UP or DOWN? Our traders will be discussing this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 19:00 – Final CPI (annual)
Tue 19:00 – ZEW Economic Sentiment
Fri 17:30 – German Flash Manufacturing PMI
Fri 17:30 – German Flash Services PMI
For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX break and close above 12566. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 12714. A strong break of this level could see the DAX rally quickly to 12783; and if momentum is very strong we will look for a move to 12847.
If the DAX fails to close above 12566, we will look for a move back down to 12384 before another pause. A close below this level however could see the DAX sell-off sharply into 12198 and if momentum is very strong to the downside 12115.
US
SP500 – 2499 ( +36 or +1.46% )
The S&P finally managed to clip 2500! We are at all-time highs once again but is there something else brewing….? Going into FED week, we will be discussing and trading this market exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 22:30 – Building Permits
Tue 22:30 – Housing Starts
Thu 00:00 – Existing Home Sales
Thu 04:00 – FOMC Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV
Thu 04:30 – FOMC Press Conference
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P break above 2500. Should this occur we will look for a move to 2512. A close above this level could see 2524, and if the rally continues we will look for a spike higher into 2540.
If we cannot close above 2500, we will look for a move back down to 2477. A break below this level could see the S&P head lower into 2465, and a strong break and close below this level may see this market trade back down to 2440. If momentum is very strong to the downside, be cautious of a sharp decline into 2431, 2424 and 2418 by the end of the week.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.8011 ( -51 or -0.63% )
The Aussie Dollar failed to gain any upside momentum past our key 0.8118 level, and also remains below our key 0.8034 area. Can this market recover this week or will we see more downside?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
For a move higher we must now see this market close above 0.8034. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 0.8118. A strong break above 0.8118 could see this market rally into 0.8162, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.8301.
If we cannot close above 0.8034, we are likely to see a quick break down through 0.8000. A strong close below this level may then result in a retest of 0.7903, and if momentum remains strong we will look for a move into 0.7833. Should we break lower however, a move down into 0.7779 cannot be ruled out.
EUR/USD – 1.1945 ( -86 or -0.71% )
The EURO was sideways-down for the majority of last week finding support at 1.1834. This is the key level to watch this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 19:00 – Final CPI (annual)
Tue 19:00 – ZEW Economic Sentiment
Fri 17:00 – French Flash Manufacturing PMI
Fri 17:00 – French Flash Services PMI
Fri 17:30 – German Flash Manufacturing PMI
Fri 17:30 – German Flash Services PMI
Fri 18:00 – Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI
Fri 18:00 – Eurozone Flash Services PMI
For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO break and close strongly above 1.2042. Should this occur we will look for the EURO to rally into 1.2167, and if momentum is very strong we will look for a move into 1.2229.
If the EURO cannot hold above 1.2042, we will look for a move back down into 1.1834. A strong break of this level could then see a move back down into 1.1738, and if downside momentum is very strong we could quickly see a move lower into 1.1678.
GBP/USD – 1.3588 ( +393 or +2.98% )
Last week we warned members of increasing volatility on the Pound and the timing couldn’t have been better: 1.3534 was reached with back to back 200+point days to close off the week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 18:30 – Retail Sales
For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.3524, on its way to retesting 1.3743. A break of this level could see the Pound quickly reach 1.3875 before a pause; and if momentum is very strong a move to 1.4075 cannot be ruled out.
If we fail to hold above 1.3524, we may see this market trade back into 1.3436. A strong break below this level could then see this market trade down to 1.3277 before a pause; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 1.3156.
USD/JPY – 110.83 ( +300 or +2.78% )
Last we mentioned in the LIVE CHAT ROOM a US Dollar reversal was underway as we saw the $/YEN rally again into our strong 111.09 level. Can the YEN continue to rally?
NOTE: Monday is a public holiday (Respect for the Aged Day)
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 12:00 – BoJ Interest Rate Announcement
Thu 12:00 – BoJ Press Conference
For a move to the upside we must now see this market break and close above 111.09. Should this occur we will look for a move into 111.72, and a strong break and close above this level may see the $/YEN rally strongly into 112.68.
If we cannot close above 111.09, we could see a move back down into 110.04. A strong break below this level could see a further move down into 109.21, and momentum is very strong to the downside we may see a sharp move down into 108.31.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1320 ( -26 or -1.93% )
After initially gapping down GOLD struggled to maintain higher prices last week and we now enter a very important week for this market. We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market close and hold above 1322. Should this occur we will look for a move into 1335, and a close above this level could see further upside into 1342. If momentum remains very strong, we will look for a move back up to 1355.
If Gold cannot hold above 1322, we will look for a strong move back down into 1303. A strong break below this level is then likely to see a retest of 1294; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 1284 by the end of the week.
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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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