This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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AUSTRALASIA ASX – 6792 ( +39 or +0.58% ) The ASX finished managed to close higher last week as we once again move towards testing the all important 6800 area. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6682. Should this occur, we will look for a test of 6804. If momentum to the upside continues we could see a retest of 6850, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out rule out a move to 7011. If the ASX cannot hold above 6682, we will look for a move back down to 6635. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6544 before a pause; and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6435.
DAX – 13239 ( -22 or -0.17% ) The DAX is up against strong resistance here and remains in a tight consolidation. We are again on alert for a potential reversal.
VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 23:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Fri 19:00 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks Fri 19:30 – German Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI For a continued move to the upside we would now like to see the DAX close above 13388, on its way to retesting 13520. A strong break and close above this level could see a fast move to 13697, and if momentum is very strong we could see a sharp move higher into 13819. If the DAX fails to hold above 13388, we could see a move back down into 13205. A break below this level could mean a strong move down into the key 13050 level.
SP500 – 3119 ( +27 or +0.87% ) The S&P continues to lead the way having printed all time highs again and closed higher. We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 06:00 – FOMC Meeting Minutes Fri 00:30 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Sat 01:45 – Flash Manufacturing PMI For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 3100. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 3140. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3159 and 3166. If we cannot hold above 3100, we could see this market retest 3066. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 3020; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 3003.
AUD/USD – 0.6821 ( -37 or -0.54% ) The Aussie Dollar saw a reversal as we mentioned in Friday’s LIVE TV. Can this market rally from here? VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.6873. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6934, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7014 before a pause. If the AUD cannot close above 0.6873, we will look for a move lower into 0.6800. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6762, and if momentum is very strong to the downside we may see a move into 0.6692.
EUR/USD – 1.1052 ( +33 or +0.3% ) After selling off into the 1.1000 area as we spoke about last week, the Euro has also bounced and this week we may see continuation off this level. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 23:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Fri 19:00 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks Fri 20:00 – Flash Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI For a move higher this week, we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1033; followed by a break back above 1.1197. Should this occur, we cannot rule out a move to 1.1249 if momentum remains strong. If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1033, we could see a move back down into 1.0977. If this market continues to sell-off, we could see a sharp move down into 1.0902 and 1.0814 by the week’s end.
GBP/USD – 1.2902 ( +122 or +0.95% ) The Pound continues to consolidate having done so for the last 4 weeks. We will be discussing this consolidation in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week. For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.2868, followed by a retest of 1.3035 before a pause. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1.3161 – 1.3191. On the downside, should we fail to hold above 1.2868, we will be watching the key level at 1.2720 very closely. A strong break below this level however sets this market up for a bigger move down into 1.2622, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.2480.
USD/JPY – 108.77 ( +60 or +0.55% ) The $/YEN is also at a key resistance area and all eyes will be on this market this week to see how it reacts at these levels. For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 109.21, on its way to retesting 109.94 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 110.31, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 110.78 and 111.09. If we cannot close above 109.21, we could see a fast move lower into 108.31. A break below this level may result in a retest of 107.75 before a pause. Should we break lower however, we could see a strong move down into 107.36.
GOLD – 1467 ( +8 or +0.55% ) Gold has also hit the big 1450 area and having bounced off this level, we will be discussing the importance of this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week. For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1450. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of 1470; and if momentum remains very strong, a strong break above this level could see Gold rally quickly into 1480 and 1505. If Gold cannot hold above 1450, we will look for a move back down into 1433. A strong break and close below this level could send this market lower into 1416, and if momentum is strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into 1402.
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