This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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to avoid long delays. Enquire now INDICES AUSTRALASIA ASX – 6204 ( +17 or +0.27% ) The ASX struggled last week despite if momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6345. If the ASX cannot close above 6206, we will look for managing to close slightly higher. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Mon 11:30 – Unemployment Rate For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX close above 6206. Should this occur we will look for a move into 6276, and a move back down to 6180 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6140, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 6070. EUROPE DAX – 11686 ( +193 or +1.68% ) The DAX has broken out and continues to be in a position to post a larger rally should we break this week’s key resistance levels. We will be discussing the importance of this move in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 21:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment Thu All Day – EU Economic Summit Fri 19:30 – German Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX close strongly above the 11755 – 11790 area. Should this occur, we will look for a retest 11875. If momentum is very strong, a break and close above this level could see another push higher into 12054. If the DAX fails to close above 11755, we will look for a move back down to 11362 before a potential pause. If this market continues to sell-off, a very strong move down into 11050 cannot be ruled out.
US SP500 – 2824 ( +76 or +2.77% ) The S&P continues to lead global markets higher having closed above the important 2808 level; going into a very important week. We will be discussing this market in the MEMBER PORTAL as it happens. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 05:00 – FOMC Interest Rate Announcement Thu 05:30 – FOMC Press Conference Thu 23:30 – Philly FED Manufacturing Index For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 2838. Should this occur we will look for a strong move into 2850. A strong break above this level could see this market trade into 2870 quickly; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move into 2889. If we cannot close above 2838, we could see this market trade back down to 2808. A break of this level however may result in quick move back down to 2790; and if momentum is strong to the downside we could see a sharp move down to 2760.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.7085 ( +40 or +0.57% ) The Aussie Dollar remains at a very key level as sellers continue to put pressure on this market. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Mon 11:30 – Unemployment Rate For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.7113. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7197, and if upside momentum remains strong we will look for 0.7229 – 0.7236 before a pause. If the AUD cannot close above 0.7113, we will look for a move lower into 0.7014. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6997. Any further breaks to the downside could then see the AUD quickly trade at 0.6958 and 0.6934; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.6830.
EUR/USD – 1.1325 ( +92 or +0.82% ) Like the Aussie Dollar, the Euro is also testing a very key level here. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu All Day – EU Economic Summit Fri 20:00 – Euro-Area Flash Manufacturing PMI, Euro-Area Services PMI For a move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1249 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a retest into 1.1335 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1453 before a pause. A strong close above this level however could see the EURO rally strong into 1.1496 by the week’s end. If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1249, we could see a fast move down into 1.1201 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1117 before the week’s end.
GBP/USD – 1.3295 ( +279 or +2.14% ) The Pound continues to remain highly volatile as Brexit news continues to shake this market both ways. We will again be covering this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 20:30 – Unemployment Rate Wed 06:00 (TBC) – Parliament Brexit Vote Wed 20:30 – CPI (annual) Thu 20:30 – Retail Sales (monthly) Thu 23:00 – BoE Interest Rate Announcement For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.3277 this week. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.3386 and if momentum is very strong we could see a bigger move into 1.3534 On the downside, if we cannot hold above 1.3277 we will look for a move back down to 1.3161. A break below this level however could see this market retest the important 1.2868; and if momentum to the downside is very strong we cannot rule out a bigger move to 1.2720.
USD/JPY – 111.92 ( +127 or +1.15% ) The YEN continues to consolidate its move higher and our levels this week have not changed. NOTE: Wednesday is a public holiday in Japan (Vernal Equinox Day) For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 111.73. Should this occur we could see $/YEN rally into 112.68 and 113.29 by the end of this week. If we cannot hold above 111.73, we will look for another quick retest of 111.09.. A break below this level however may result in a fast move down to 109.94
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1302 ( +4 or +0.31% ) Like the Aussie Dollar, Gold also remains under pressure and this is yet another important week for this market. For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1294. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1303. A strong close above this level could see further upside into 1313; and if momentum remains very strong, we could see a big push into 1322 and 1333. If Gold cannot hold above 1294, we will look for a move back down into 1285. A strong break and close below this level however takes us down into the key 1276 – 1278 area. Should this level break, we could see a strong move down to 1260.
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