This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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We may take multiple trades throughout the week and discuss in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
Trade View has entered the weekend LIGHT NET LONG.
UPCOMING EVENTS
INTERMEDIATE WORKSHOP
MAY 2016 – 2 SEATS LEFT
BOOK YOUR SEAT FOR MAY 2016 HERE
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5159 ( +212 or +4.29% )
We were anticipating a rally last week and that’s exactly what we saw. It will be interesting to see if the ASX can continue its strong form going into this week.
VOLATILITY ALERT: RBA Minutes on Tuesday, NAB Business Confidence on Thursday.
For a continued move higher we would like to see a strong break and close above 5238. Should we break this level we could see a move to 5294, a continued rally could see this move head to 5372 before a pause.If momentum remains strong we could see an extended move into 5403.
If we fail to break 5238, we will be looking for a move back down to 5161; and a break below this could result in a move back into 5090. A strong break and close below 5090 could see a quick move back down to 4997, and a strong break and close below this level may result in a sharp move back down to 4921.
EUROPE
DAX – 10038 ( +428 or +4.45% )
Like the ASX the DAX also rallied strongly last week but failed to break through the March highs. This is now a very key area and we will be discussing potential moves in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERT: ECB interest rate and press conference on Thursday, PMI numbers on Friday.
For a continued move to the upside we would like to see the DAX hold above above 10013, on its way to retesting 10158. A strong break and close above this level could see the DAX really take off- making fast moves to 10289 and 10382 before a pause. If momentum is strong we may see a strong move to 10585.
If we fail to hold above 10013, we will look for a move back down to 9907. A close below this level may result in a move down 9822 and should this level fail, we could see a move back down into to 9620. A strong break below this level could see the DAX trade all the way back down to 9560; and if momentum remains strong we would not be surprised to see a move back down to 9386.
US
SP500 – 2081 ( +34 or +1.66% )
The S&P continues its upward grind and like the DAX we find ourselves again at important levels.
VOLATILITY ALERT: Building permits on Tuesday
For a move higher we would like to see a the S&P hold above 2076. Should this occur we will look for a move back up into 2097. A strong break and close above 2097 may likely result in a move to 2106 and 2112 before another pause.
If we cannot hold above 2076, we will watch for a move back down into 2054 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level could see the S&P head back down into the important 2040 area; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we could see a very fast move down into 2019.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7723 ( +173 or +2.29% )
The $AUD is now at an extremely important level having touched out 0.7729 level multiple times but failing to break through so far. Will we break this week??? Members will be the first to know in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERT: RBA Minutes on Tuesday, RBA Governor Stevens speaking Tuesday night.
For a move higher we would like to see the AUD hold above 0.7662, followed by a break and close above 0.7729. A strong break and close above this level we could see a very strong push up to 0.7833; and if momentum remains strong we will then be looking for 0.7903.
If we cannot hold above 0.7662, we will look for a move back down to 0.7561. A break below this level may result in a move back down into 0.7489 and 0.7447. A subsequent break of this level may then result in a move back down to 0.7389 before a pause.
EUR/USD – 1.1282 ( -112 or -0.98% )
This week all eyes will be on Draghi as traders look for any clues or changes in sentiment regarding the ECB’s ongoing QE program.
VOLATILITY ALERT: ECB interest rate and press conference on Thursday, PMI numbers on Friday.
For a sustained move higher we would like to see a break and close above 1.1347, followed by a quick move to test 1.1385. A strong break and close above these levels could see the EURO head to 1.1435 and 1.1496 before a pause. Should we break through 1.1496, we could see a very strong move to test 1.1613.
On the downside, a break and close below 1.1248 could result in a move back down to 1.1201. Should the EURO continue to taper off, a break below this level may result in a quick moves down to 1.1163 and 1.1117 before a pause. If 1.1117 is broken, we will look for the EURO to move back down to 1.1033 and 1.0977.
GBP/USD – 1.4199 ( +78 or +0.55% )
The GBP gained some strength last week but like other markets has been in a sideways distribution over the past few weeks.
VOLATILITY ALERT: BoE Governor Carney speaks Tuesday night, Unemployment on Wednesday, Retail Sales on Thursday .
For a move to the upside we would like to see a strong break through 1.4194. A break through this level could then result in moves into 1.4382 and potentially 1.4469 before a pause. If momentum remains strong, we will look for moves into 1.4503 and 1.4538, and finally 1.4630.
If we cannot hold above 1.4140, we will look for moves down into 1.4041 and 1.4006. A break below this level could see a further move down to 1.3937, and should we see continued downside we will look for a move to 1.3853. If momentum to the downside remains very strong, a sell-off into 1.3743 – 1.3725 cannot be ruled out.
USD/JPY – 108.74 ( +66 or +0.61% )
Last week members were alerted to some fantastic moves in the USD/JPY in our LIVE CHAT ROOM and these markets did not disappoint! We spoke about this in more detail in our new LIVE TV broadcast last Friday.
This week we will be watching the YEN pairs again for continued moves higher, or potential failures.
For a continued move to the upside we would like to see the market hold above 108.31. Should this occur we will then be looking for a move into 109.21. A strong break and close above 109.21 could see a quick move into 109.94 and if a V-bottom reversal takes shape, we could see a strong move all the way back up to 111.09.
If however the USD/JPY cannot hold above 108.31, we will look for a move down to 107.75. A break below this level could see the USD/JPY trade quickly down to 106.30 again before a potential pause. Should we break below this level we could see continued downside pressure for the USD/JPY and quickly see moves into 105.36 and 104.97.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1233 ( -6 or -0.48% )
A volatile week for GOLD saw it start the week strong only to fall and finish almost flat last week. As such, our comments remain unchanged.
For a continued move higher we would like to see 1222 hold as support, followed by a break and close through 1247. Should this occur we could see a strong move to 1258, and a break of this level could see a move into 1276 before another pause. If momentum to the upside remains very strong we will watch for a fast move to 1294.
If Gold cannot hold above 1222, we will look for a move back down to 1206. A strong break and close below this level we could see Gold trade back down to 1187 and 1181 before the end of the week.
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