This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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Trade View has entered the weekend Net Long.
UPCOMING SYDNEY SEMINAR 29th August 2015
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AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5356 ( – 104 or – 1.90% )
The ASX continued lower last week breaking through a key area between 5462 – 41. This break has pushed it down to a new level of potential support near 5319 with a low of 5310. 5319 will now be the KEY level moving into this week.
For the upmove to restart we need to see a strong up bar break and close back through 5367. If this occurs then area between 5441 – 62 will also need to be broken with a long up bar before the ASX can see 5505 again.
For the down move to continue this week then we need to see an early long down bar break and close past the new key level of 5319. Once this occurs the ASX could find itself near 5270 very quickly, this will then lead to further downside moves past 5216 before finding potential support near our FICM level of 5150.
EUROPE
DAX – 11048 ( – 460 or – 4.00% )
Oops the DAX steamed ahead too early and last week saw a range move back down. This week will be a real test for the DAX as it is getting close to a potential new downleg.
If the DAX is to have any chance of reversing back up again we would then like to see 10868 hold as a very strong support level before another break above 11080 can occur. Once this occurs the DAX needs to break 11163 with strong momentum reaching the area between 11257 – 97. Once this area is reached we would like to see a strong long up bar break past this area before reaching 11373. If the upward momentum is strong and we see a complete FADE back we could see the DAX reach 11537 or 11621.
If the DAX is getting close to a new DOWN leg then we would like to see an early break past 10941 with a continued long down bar break and close past 10869 reaching 10793. Once this occurs the DAX will be tested near 10684 to see if it can hold this level, if not then we could see a bit of a FREE FALL scenario. If this occurs then we will discuss downside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM
US
S&P – 2094 ( + 16 or + 0.77% )
The S&P is playing a little ping pong with traders and basically shaking many out. Once this is over the break either way will be very strong, so BE PREPARED.
For the upward move to restart we would like to see 2085 become a strong level of support before another move through 2101 occurs. Once this occurs we could see 2112 come back into play. This will need to be broken with a strong up bar before pushing for new all time highs again.
If the S&P cannot get back above 2100 early this week then another break down past 2085 and 2076 could see the area between 2050 – 46 tested before a strong push down towards 2033 and 2024 is achieved.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7373 ( – 45 or – 0.61% )
The ASX broke down through 7263 with a low of 7215 then POP up she goes.
As always BE PREPARED.
If we are to see a continuation of last weeks up move then 7407 needs to hold as a strong level of support. Once this occurs then 7494 could be see. If the momentum is strong then we could see 7635 which would complete the range.
If we see a quick reversal back down past 7407 and a downside move starts then we need to see an early long down bar reaching 7263 followed by 7116 which is now in line with levels back in early 2009.
EUR.USD – 11110 ( + 145 or + 1.32% )
The EUR moved higher early last week before tapering off.
If the EUR is to continue last weeks move higher then we would like to see an early break and close past 11166 before pushing towards 11315. If the momentum continues strong then we could see the EUR push towards our FICM level of 11395 and possibly extend to 11427 which would complete the range.
our FICM level of 10925 hold as a strong level of support before a break past 11038 is made. If the upward momentum is strong then we could see 11166.
If the down move is to restart then a strong long down bar break and close past 11038 before reaching 10925. Once this level is broken we could see the EUR reach 10780. This could then start a FREE FALL down to 10590.
GBP.USD – 15638 ( + 148 or + 0.96% )
The GBP is in a sideways move at the moment so many of the levels discuss will be the same.
For the GBP to restart its run higher we would like to see 15644 hold as a strong level of support before before reaching our FICM level of 15744. If the upward momentum is strong then 15834 could be seen.
For the down move to continue we would like to see a strong break past 15591 before reaching 15549. Once this occurs then we could see our FICM level of 15458 reached very quickly where we could see some temporary support.
USD.JPY – 12430 ( + 9 or + 0.07% )
Once again the USD move higher early but then could not keep the momentum and came back down to close only a few points higher.
As the USD has not moved much our comments remain the same:
For the USD to continue its longer term rally we need to see a strong up bar break through 12464 before reaching 12558 again and testing the highs of June 2015.
For this pair to move back down we need to see a strong move back past the area 12346-24 before reaching 12275. if this too is broken then we could see 12225.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1114 ( + 20 or + 1.83% )
After some time in a sideways move GOLD POPPED higher before settling again. Last week we said “Gold is moving sideways at the moment. Be Prepared for the next strong move.”
For the upward move to continue higher we would like to see a strong break past 1134 before 1149 can be reached. If this occurs then we will discuss further up moves in our LIVE CHAT ROOM
For GOLD to continue its move lower we would like to see a strong break back down past 1103 reaching 1091. Once this is broken we could see GOLD down near 1069.
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