This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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INDICES ASX – 5823 ( +113 or +1.98% ) The ASX has finally broken out of a very narrow range as we discussed with members in the the LIVE CHAT ROOM last week, closing right at our key level of 5823. This week should prove to be very interesting. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX hold above 5777, followed by a strong close above 5823. Should this occur we will look for a move into 5875, and if momentum is strong a further rally into 5921 before a pause. If the ASX cannot close above 5823, we anticipate a retest of 5777 may be likely. A close below this level could see a move to 5746 and 5720. If momentum is very strong to the downside a move to 5671 is possible.
EUROPE DAX – 12998 ( +43 or +0.33% ) The DAX managed to close higher yet again last week and we now find this market at the key 13,000 level. We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 20:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment Wed 19:10 – ECB President Draghi Speaks For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX hold above 12921. Should this occur we will look for a quick move to 13050 before a pause. If momentum continues to be very strong this week we will look for a move to 13205. If the DAX fails to close above 12921, we will look for a move back down to 12882. A close below this level however could see the DAX lower into 12714; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to to the downside 12566.
US SP500 – 2554 ( +8 or +0.31% ) Like the DAX the S&P also managed to close higher last week and is still hovering around our key levels. We will be discussing and trading this market exclusively this week in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 23:30 – Empire State Manufacturing Index Wed 23:30 – Building Permits Wed 23:30 – Housing Starts Sat 01:00 – Existing Home Sales Sat 10:30 – Janet Yellen speaks For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2550. Should this occur we will look for a move higher into 2562. If momentum is very strong and we break through 2562 easily, we cannot rule out a fast move to 2590. If we cannot hold above 2550, we will look for a move back down to 2540. A strong break and close below this level could see a sharp move down to 2524, and if momentum is very strong on the downside we could see a sell-off into 2512 and 2500.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.7888 ( +114 or +1.47% ) Last week we mentioned this market was showing signs of a reversal and this is exactly what we saw following a slow start by the bulls which culminated in a strong rally on Friday. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Minutes Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate For a move higher we must now see this market close above 0.7903, followed by a strong break and close above 0.7988. Should this occur we will look for this market to test 0.8034. A strong break and close above 0.8034 could see this market post further gains into 0.8118. If we cannot close above 0.7903, we could see the AUD retest 0.7833. Should we break lower however, we will look for a move back into 0.7779 and if downside momentum continues we could see 0.7729 quickly before another pause.
EUR/USD – 1.1821 ( +87 or +0.74% ) The EURO was also higher last week however it too has found resistance at key levels. We will be discussing this market in detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 21:00 – Final CPI (annual) For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO break and close above 1.1834. A strong close above this level may result in another retest of 1.1937, and if momentum is very strong all eyes will be on the big 1.2000 handle before another pause. If the EURO cannot close above 1.1834, we will look for a move back down into 1.1738. A strong close below this level could see the Euro test 1.1678; and should we break lower we may see a move into 1.1613 very quickly. A strong break and close below 1.1613 could a see sharp move lower into 1.1496.
GBP/USD – 1.3286 ( +220 or +1.68% ) We posted indications of increased Pound volatility a month ago to members. We have been witnessing this over the past few weeks, and this week could see more volatility. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 19:30 – CPI (annual) Tue 21:15 – BoE Carney speaks Wed 19:30 – Unemployment Rate Thu 19:30 – Retail Sales For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.3277. Should this occur we will look for the Pound to rally into 1.3309 before a pause; however a strong break of this level could see a retest of 1.3534. If we cannot hold above 1.3277, we will look for a move lower back down to 1.3085 – 1.3035 before a pause. Should we break this level, we cannot rule out a move lower into 1.2868.
USD/JPY – 111.83 ( -82 or -0.73% ) The $/YEN has put in a short-term high as we expected and we are watching this market closely this week. For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 111.72. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 112.68 before another pause. However a strong break and close above this level could see the YEN rally strongly into 113.87. If we cannot hold above 111.72, we are likely to see a retest of 111.09. A strong break and close below this level could result in a move back down to 110.45, and if momentum to the downside is very strong we may see a sharp move down into 109.94.
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1303 ( +27 or +2.12% ) Gold continues to rally with buyers stepping in last week closing this market at our 1303 level. Will we break higher from here? Members in the MEMBER PORTAL will be the first to know. For a continued move higher we must now see this market close and hold above 1303. Should this occur we will look for a move into 1313 before a pause. If momentum is strong, we could see a sharp move into 1322 and 1333 by the end of the week. If Gold cannot hold above 1303, we will look for a strong move back down into 1294, and possibly 1284 before a pause. A break and close below this level could then see this market test the key area between 1276 – 1278; and if momentum is very strong to the downside this week a move to 1257 cannot be ruled out.
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