This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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SATURDAY 5TH DECEMBER 2015
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SOME OF OUR LEVELS REACHED IN LAST WEEK’S MARKET BRIEF
#DAX closed at 10679 which was only 5 points below our level of 10684
#SPX closed at 2017 which was only 7 points above our level of 2010
#USDJPY closed at 12260 which was only 15 points below our level of 12275
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 4990 ( – 213 or – 4.09% )
This week we saw the ASX make its decision, one big long down bar through 5150 set the tone for a 4%+ down move. ne thing to note is that we are now at the bottom of the Standard deviation channel. Look for a POP higher early.
For the upmove to restart we would like to see 4976 hold as a strong level of support before a strong move back up reaching 5040. Once this occurs then 5095 could be seen. The momentum will need to remain strong for the ASX to reach 5150 again. This level will once again play an important role moving forward.
For the downside move to continue we would like to see an early long down bar break past 4976 before pushing past 4922 to reach 4863. Once this is reached we could see some form of support but if not and the ASX has had enough then expect 4754 to be reached.
EUROPE
DAX – 10679 ( – 341 or – 3.09% )
The DAX tried to stay above 10868 and lead but this time the rest of the world markets dictated the move back down past this level.
For the upmove to restart we would like to see an early break past 10793 before testing 10868. This will then need a strong break and close past our FICM level of 10868. Once this occurs then we could see 10941 followed by 11080. Continued strong momentum could see the DAX push towards 11163 then 11257 and 11292 before it takes a breather.
If last week was the start of a strong continued down move then an early break down could see the DAX near 10497 very quickly. If the momentum is strong then 10389 could bee seen before it settles near 10318. If the move becomes aggressive then the levels we will be watching closely are 10258, 10146, 10075 – 35.
US
S&P – 2017 ( – 82 or – 3.91% )
2 weeks ago we said “The S&P keeps pushing higher, but we are slightly cautious”. And our caution was rewarded. It came back down with a thud.
For the upward move to restart we need to see the area between 2010 – 15 hold as a strong level of support before a bounce back up past 2046 can occur. A strong long up bar break past this area could see 2076 and 2087 again.
A long down bar break and close past the 2015 – 10 area could see some very aggressive panic selling reaching 1990 and 1981. If this is not enough for the short sellers then look out for 1972 with an (dare I say it) overextension towards 1947?
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7126 ( + 86 or + 1.22% )
The AUD move back up retracing all of the down move on Friday the previous week
If the AUD moves back higher we would like to see 7177 broken early in the week with a possible move towards the area between 7230 – 63. If the momentum continues strong then we could see a FULL FADE back up towards 7330.
For the AUD to continue lower then we would like to see an early break past 7050 before reaching 6996. 6996 will then need to be broken with a long down bar reaching 6957. Once this occurs then we could see 6893 tested.
EUR.USD – 10769 ( +32 or + 0.30% )
While the markets moved all over the place, the EUR rotated sideways. Therefore our comments remain the same:
For the EUR to restart higher we would like to see a strong hold above last weeks low of 10707 before bouncing back above 10780 reaching the area between 10899 – 10925.
If the EUR takes another leg down and continues lower then we would like to see a strong break and close past 10707 reaching 10590. Once this level is broken we could see 10452. If this level is broken we will discuss further downside moves in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
GBP.USD – 15228 ( + 185 or + 1.23% )
The GBP bounced off of a Dime to retrace all of the down move on Friday the previous week.
For the GBP to continue its run higher we would like to see 15248 broken early in the week with a long up bar. Once this occurs then we could see 15364 followed by 15456 with a possible push towards 15532.
For the down move to take another leg down then we would like to see a long down bar break and close past 15139. If this occurs then we see 14950 as being the next level reached before settling near 14812.
USD.JPY – 12260 ( – 56 or – 0.45% )
The USD tried to push through a key level of 12333 but as the range was completed it came back down.
For the USD to continue the strong push higher we would like to see a strong long up bar break and close past our key level of 12332. Once this occurs then we could see 12403 and possibly 12464 reached. If the momentum stays strong then 12558 could be in its sights.
For this pair to restart back down we would like to see 12275 act as a strong level of resistance before a move down past 12225 occurs reaching 12184 before settling near 12151.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1083 ( – 6 or – 0.45% )
GOLD has settled near the ows of July/August 2015. Lets see for how long.
For GOLD to have any chance of moving back up we need to see it settle around this area with a possible low of 1069. Once this occurs we could see a sideways move before a push back up towards 1103. Any breaks above 1103 will be discussed in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
If the down move is not finished and we see another leg down then we need to see a break past 1069. This could then lead the metal down to 1043 and 1025 with the possibility of reaching 1005.
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