This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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INDICES AUSTRALASIA ASX – 6260 ( -31 or -0.49% ) The ASX struggled to push higher last week and this week we look to see whether this market can continue to drive higher or consolidate recent gains. We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX close above 6276. Should this occur we will look for a move into 6345, and if momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6440. If the ASX cannot close above 6276, we will look for a move back down to 6206 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6140, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 6070.
EUROPE DAX – 12547 ( +49 or +0.39% ) The DAX continues to grind higher for the second straight week. Will we see this market rally and break last month’s highs? VOLATILITY ALERTS: Wed 19:00 – Final CPI (annual) For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX hold above 12384 followed by a close above 12566. A break of this level could then result into a quick move into 12640; followed by continuation into 12714. If momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 12830. If the DAX fails to close and hold above 12384, we expect to see a move back down into 12198 before a pause. A break below this level however means we may see more selling into 12115; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we may see a sharp move into 12044.
US SP500 – 2802 ( +41 or +1.48% ) US markets continue to lead the way and the S&P was one of the better performers last week. We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 22:30 – Retail Sales Wed 00:00 – Fed Chair Powell testifies Day 1 Wed 22:30 – Building Permits Thu 00:00 – Fed Chair Powell testifies Day 2 Thu 22:30 – Philly FED Manufacturing Index For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close and close above 2802. Should this occur we could see another retest of 2808. A close above this level then sets the stage for a move into 2838. If we cannot hold above 2802, we will look for a move back down to 2785. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2760; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move to 2736.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.7422 ( -5 or -0.07% ) The Aussie Dollar continues to consolidate however has found key support at 0.7364. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate For a move higher we would like to see the AUD close above 0.7447, followed by a break and close above 0.7489. A strong break and close above this level could see a quick move to 0.7561 before a pause; and if momentum remains strong we will look for a move into 0.7617. If we cannot close above 0.7447, we will look for a move back down to 0.7364. A strong break below this level may result in a move back down into 0.7282 before another potential pause. Any subsequent breaks of this level however may result in a very fast move down to 0.7229.
EUR/USD – 1.1686 ( -57 or -0.49% ) Like the Aussie Dollar, the Euro has also found key support at 1.1613 despite being confined within a larger sideways range. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Wed 19:00 – Final CPI (annual) For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1738 this week. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 1.1822; whilst a strong break above this level may see a run into the big figure at 1.2000. If the EURO cannot close above 1.1738, we could see a fast move down into 1.1613. A break below this could be followed by another quick move into 1.1496; and should momentum remain strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.1453. GBP/USD – 1.3237 ( -45 or -0.34% ) Also like the Aussie/Euro, Cable printed an interesting reversal on Friday of 1.3111 and this is now a very key level to watch going forward. Things are getting very interesting here with plenty of Brexit sensitive news being released last week. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 18:00 – BoE Governor Carney Speaks Tue 18:30 – Unemployment Rate Wed 18:30 – CPI (annual) Thu 18:30 – Retail Sales (monthly) For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.3309. Should this occur we will look for the Pound to rally into 1.3534 before a pause; however a strong break of this level could see a retest of 1.3875. If we cannot close above 1.3309, we will look for a quick move down into 1.3111. A break of this level may result in a retest of 1.3035; however any subsequent break could see this market sell-off quickly into 1.2868. Should the downside momentum continue, we cannot rule out a move to 1.2720.
USD/JPY – 112.33 ( +187 or +1.69% ) The $/YEN managed to finally break through the the key 110- 11 area, but can it continue it’s stellar run? For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 111.73. Should this occur we will look for a test of 112.68 before another pause. However a strong break and close above this level could see the YEN rally strongly into 113.87. If we cannot hold above 111.73, we are likely to see a retest of 111.09. A strong break and close below this level could result in a move back down to 110.45, and if momentum to the downside is very strong we may see a very sharp move down into 109.94.
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1241 ( -13 or -1.04% ) GOLD continued lower again last week. Will the bulls finally show up this week? For a move higher we would like to see this market hold above 1238. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1247. A close above this level may likely see a further move to the upside into 1260 before a pause. Should momentum remain very strong, we could see a fast move into 1276. If Gold cannot hold above 1238, we could see a very sharp drop into 1222 before a pause. However any subsequent breaks of this level may result in further downside into 1216, and if momentum to the downside remains very strong we cannot rule out a move into 1206.
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