This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up to the minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5846 ( -33 or -0.56% )
The ASX is now testing a very key area and we will be discussing the significance of this market this week in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Numbers
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX close above 5921 followed by a push into 6070. Should this occur we will look for a move into 6140, and if momentum to the upside remains strong we cannot rule out a move to 6206 and 6276.
If the ASX cannot close above 5921, we will look for a move back down to 5823 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 5746, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 5614.
EUROPE
DAX – 13182 ( +218 or +1.68% )
The DAX was one of the few equity markets that closed higher last week however it is not out of the woods just yet.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Sun 19:30 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX hold above 13050. Should this occur, we will look for a strong move back up into 13266, and if momentum remains strong a push back higher into 13520.
If the DAX fails to hold above 13050, we may see a retest back down into the key level of 12714. A close below this level is likely to see a retest of 12566; however if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 12266.
US
SP500 – 3338 ( -78 or -2.28% )
The S&P sold off for the second straight week as we head into a very important week for this market. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 22:30 – Retail Sales
Thu 04:00 – FOMC Interest Rate Announcement
Thu 04:30 – FOMC Press Conference
Sat 00:00 – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 3395. Should this occur, we will look for a move higher into 3498. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3560; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 3602.
If we cannot close above 3395, we could see this market move lower into 3300. A break of this level however may result in a quick move down to 3274; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 3210 and 3140.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7283 ( +1 or +0.01% )
The Aussie Dollar remained virtually unchanged and as such our levels and commentary remains the same.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Numbers
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.7364. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7447, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7489 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot close above 0.7364, we will look for this market to break lower through 0.7282. A break and close below this level could see a sharp decline into 0.7112; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.7014
EUR/USD – 1.1844 ( +7 or +0.06% )
The EURO also remains in a tight sideways range and we will now be watching this market closely for a breakout. We will be discussing this market again in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Sun 19:30 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1834. Should this occur we could see a retest of 1.1925. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.2002; and if momentum is very strong, 1.2042 cannot be ruled out.
If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1834, we could see a fast move down into 1.1738 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1678, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1613.
GBP/USD – 1.2795 ( -487 or -3.67% )
Cable was sold off aggressively last week with Brexit news returning to the fold. Can this market settle here this week?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 16:00 – Claimant Count Change
Wed 16:00 – CPI (annual)
Thu 21:00 – BoE Interest Rate Announcement
Fri 16:00 – Retail Sales (monthly)
For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.2868, followed by a move higher into 1.3035 before a pause. If however momentum is very strong we may see a strong push into 1.3161 and 1.3277 by the weeks’ end.
Should we fail to close above 1.2868, we could see a move back down to the all important 1.2720. A break below this level however could see Cable further depreciate to 1.2622 by the week’s end; and if momentum is very strong to the downside 1.2480 cannot be ruled out.
USD/JPY – 106.14 ( -9 or -0.08% )
The $/Yen remains in a very tight range and we are also watching this market very closely now for a breakout. We will be discussing this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 12:30 – BoJ Interest Rate Announcement
Thu 12:30 – BoJ Press Conference
For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 105.99. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 106.82, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move all the way back up to 108.31.
If we cannot hold above 105.99, we could see another move back down into 105.50. A break below this level may result in further downside to 104.97; and any further breaks to the downside may trigger a bigger move into 103.21.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1940 ( +7 or +0.36% )
GOLD has once again found support at key levels but this market remains under pressure from the bears. We will be discussing this market again in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
For a move higher we must see this market hold above 1938. Should this occur we will look for a move to 2012. A break above this level sets Gold up for retests of 2033 and 2050.
If Gold cannot hold above 1938, we will look for a move back down to 1920. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1900; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a sharp move down to 1871.
