This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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We may take multiple trades throughout the week and discuss in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
Trade View has entered the weekend Net Long.
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AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5093 ( + 85 or + 1.70% )
The ASX moved higher early in the week but then struggled as soon as it touched above 5200. It is a challenging time for the ASX at the moment with pressure coming in the form of its biggest trading partner, China.
For the upmove to restart we would like to see 5050 hold as a strong level of support before another attempt at breaking and closing past 5150 occurs. If the momentum continues strong then we could see 5217 reached. Once this occurs and we see a strong move then 5270 and 5319 are not out of the question.
If the ASX breaks down through 5050 again early in the week then the downward process could reach 4976 and 4922 very quickly. Once this level is broken the 4863 could be seen just as fast. If the downward momentum is strong then the lows of AUG and 4754 will play a pivotal role in deciding the next direction of the ASX. If this level is broken with strong momentum then we will discuss downside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
EUROPE
DAX – 10189 ( + 163 or + 1.63% )
The DAX also tried to move higher early the week but came back down to close up for the week by over 150 points. This is a sideways move for the DAX so our comments remain the same.
For the upmove to restart the DAX needs to see a strong break and close above 10258 before reaching 10473. Once this occurs we could see 10684 reached before another strong push past 10793 and finally reaching 10868.
If the DAX is continues down through 10000 then we could see 9896 followed by 9829 finally reaching 9745 before taking its first breather. Once this level is reached and if the momentum continues strong then 9672 and 9589 might provide some resistance, if they don’t then we could be in another FREE FALL scenario. If this occurs then we will discuss downside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
US
S&P – 1962 ( + 39 or + 2.03% )
The S&P is trying really hard to move higher but there are many pressures coming from all over. If the S&P is to move higher it needs to do it soon, otherwise we could see further uncertainty which could lead to further downside pressure.
For the upward move to restart we would like to see the area between 1947 – 57 hold as a strong level of support before pushing back past the area between 1981 – 90. If the momentum is strong then 2010 here we come. If the S&P overextends then 2046 will be the next pivotal level to be watched.
If the S&P fails to stay above the area between 1957 – 47 and we see an early break down reaching 1927 then we could see a bit of a strong push back down towards 1901. Breaks past this level could see 1882 quickly followed by 1869, 1857 and finally a test of the AUG 2015 low of 1834. If 1834 is also broken then we will discuss further downside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7090 ( + 182 or + 2.63% )
No downside last week. The AUD just powered ahead as the possibility of no FED hike rumours start.
If the AUD is to continue its move higher then we would like to see 7116 broken early in the week. If the upward momentum is strong then 7263 won’t be far away. And could we see 7407?
If the AUD continues lower we would like to see 6953 become a solid level of resistance before an attempt is made at breaking through both 6809 and 6761. Once this break occurs then 6572 could be seen with a possible extension towards 6460.
EUR.USD – 11335 ( + 190 or + 1.70% )
psst – To Mario Draghi, If you want the Euro to go down you need to act.
If the EUR continues its strength this week then we would like to see a strong long up bar break and close past 11395 before reaching 11427 and 11471. If the upward momentum is strong then 11666 and 11732 are not out of the question.
For the downward move to really kick into play then we would like to see a strong break and close past 11166 early in the week before reaching 11038 quickly. A break through 11038 could see our downside FICM level of 10925.
GBP.USD – 15427 ( + 260 or + 1.71% )
The GBP followed the rest of the majors moving higher against the USD. As the FED is making a decision this week you will need to be prepared either way.
For the GBP to continue it move higher we would like to see another strong long upbar break past 15456 again reaching 15533. Once this occurs we would like to see continued strong moves past 15549, 15591 and 15644 before reaching the area between 15719 – 45.
For the down move to restart and take another leg down then we would like to see 15446 hold as a strong level of resistance before another attempt at breaking past 15366 is made on its way down towards 15280. If the momentum is strong then we would like to see a long down bar break and close past 15250. If 15250 is also broken then we will discuss further downside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
USD.JPY – 12058 ( + 155 or + 1.30% )
“It is an Interesting time for the FED as it is caught between a rock and a hard place”
Raise rates – risk of complete market meltdown
Keep rates on hold – high possibility of (dare I say it) QE4?
Listen to and Watch the Markets, not the media.
We have 2 key levels to the upside and they are 12064 (3 days in a row this pair closed near it) and 12151.
For the USD to restart its move higher we would like to see strong support at 11867 before moving past 11924. Once this occurs then a push back up towards 12011 could be seen. If the upward momentum continues strong then 12064 could provide a nice level for the USD to rally towards 12151.
For this pair to continue lower we would like to see 12064 continue to be a strong level of resistance before a leg lower occurs past 12011. This could then lead to 11977 and back down to 11926 before reaching 11867 and then making its final decision.
Either way we will be discussing possible moves around the FED decision throughout the week in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1107 ( – 14 or – 1.25% )
“It looks like we need a market meltdown for GOLD to rally. (Safe haven Play)”
As GOLD has not moved much, our comments from last week remain the same.
For GOLD to move higher again we would like to see a strong break early past 1134 before reaching 1149 again. Once this occurs then the area between 1161 – 67 will play a major role is allowing a push high towards 1178.
For GOLD to continue back down, 1134 needs to hold as strong resistance before a strong move down towards 1103 occurs. This could then lead to 1091 and possibly 1069.
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