This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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INDICES AUSTRALASIA ASX – 6121 ( +12 or +0.2% ) The ASX is at a key area now. Can this market break higher? VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Wed 11:30 – Wage Price Index (quarterly) Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6070. Should this occur we will look for continued upside into 6140. A strong break above this level could see a strong move into 6206 by the week’s end. If the ASX cannot hold above 6070, we will look for a move back down to 6010. A strong break and close below this level could see the ASX retest 5985, and if momentum is strong we could quickly see a further move all the way back down into 5921. EUROPE DAX – 12988 ( +154 or +1.2% ) The DAX yet again rallied for the 3rd straight week. We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 16:00 – German Prelim GDP (quarterly) Tue 19:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX hold above 12921. Should this occur we will look for a strong move into 13050, and if momentum remains strong a push back higher into 13050. If the DAX fails to hold above 12921, we may see a retest back down into the key level of 12714. A close below this level is likely to see a retest of 12566; however if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 12384. US SP500 – 2728 ( +63 or +2.36% ) The S&P has put all the bears to silence with a strong push higher last week. Can the bulls move this market through the key 2760 level? We will be discussing the impact of this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 22:30 – Retail Sales Wed 22:30 – Building Permits Thu 22:30 – Philly FED Manufacturing Index For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 2736. Should this occur we will look for a retest of the key 2760 level. A strong break and close above this level could see another retest of 2785, and if momentum remains strong to the upside we cannot rule out a move to 2808. If we cannot close above 2736, we could see this market continue to sell-off into 2720. A strong break through this level however could quickly see a move down to 2704 before a pause. If momentum to the downside is strong we may see a move lower into 2680; and a close below this level may result in a move down to 2660.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.7541 ( +3 or +0.04% ) The Aussie Dollar has put in an important short-term low. Now the question is can it continue higher from here? We will discuss this again in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Wed 11:30 – Wage Price Index (quarterly) Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate For a move higher we must now see this market hold above 0.7489, followed by a retest of the key area between 0.7550 and 0.7561. A break above this level could see this market break higher and retest 0.7617; and if momentum is very strong we may see a quick move into 0.7662. If we cannot hold above 0.7489, we will look for this market to break lower into 0.7447 before another pause. A strong break and close below this level however could mean this market sells off sharply into 0.7364. EUR/USD – 1.1939 ( -23 or -0.19% ) Like the Aussie Dollar the Euro is also attempting to base. This week will be an important week for this market. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 16:00 – German Prelim GDP (quarterly) Tue 19:00 – Flash GDP (quarterly) Wed 19:00 – Final CPI (annual) For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.2010, followed by a retest of 1.2055. Should this occur, we will then look for this market to retest 1.2167; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.2268. If however the EURO cannot close above 1.2010, we may likely see a move back down into the 1.1929 again. A strong break and close below this level could see a further move down into 1.1834; and if momentum is very strong a move down into 1.1738 cannot be ruled out.
GBP/USD – 1.3539 ( +6 or +0.04% ) Unlike the Euro, Cable is in a tight sideways range and any subsequent break higher/lower could be explosive. We are watching this market very closely and will be discussing this exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 18:30 – Unemployment Rate Tue 19:00 – Inflation Report Hearings For a move to the upside we would like to see a strong break and close above 1.3683. Should this occur we could see a quick move into 1.3875 before a pause. If momentum is very strong to the upside we may see a further push into 1.4075. If we cannot close above 1.3683, we may see further selling into 1.3402 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see Cable sell off aggressively into 1.3277. USD/JPY – 109.37 ( +33 or +0.3% ) The $/YEN is also in a consolidation/distribution and we may see more of the same this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Wed 09:50 – Prelim GDP (quarterly) For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 109.21. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 109.95, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 110.31 and 110.78. If we cannot hold above 109.21, we could see a fast move lower into 108.31. A break below this level may result in a retest of 107.75, and if the downside remains strong we could see a further sell-off into 107.36. A break below this level however could mean a very sharp move down to 106.52.
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1318 ( +4 or +0.3% ) Gold continues to chop back and forth both the bulls and bears battle over the key 1313 and 1322 levels.. For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1313. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1322. A strong close above this level could see further upside into 1333; and if momentum remains very strong, we could see a big push into 1340 and 1345. If Gold cannot hold above 1313, we will look for a move back down into 1303. A strong break and close below this level however means the next area for support lies at 1294; and a break and close below this level could see sellers push this market lower into 1285.
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