This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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INDICES ASX – 6036 ( +64 or +1.07% ) The ASX continues its strong rally for the 5th straight week holding above 6000. Will we see a continuation this week? We will be discussing this market in detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6000. Should this occur we will look for this market to test 6070, and if momentum is very strong a move to 6140 is very possible this week. If the ASX cannot hold above 6000, we could see a move back down to 5985 very quickly. A break below this may result in a retest of 5921, and if momentum to the downside continues we will look for a sell-off into 5875 before a pause.
EUROPE DAX – 13119 ( -348 or -2.58% ) The DAX sold off aggressively having been unable to break past our big level of 13520. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 18:00 – German Prelim GDP (quarterly) Tue 21:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks Tue 21:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment Fri 19:30 – ECB President Draghi Speaks For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX close and hold above 13205. Should this occur we will look for a strong move into 13388 and a potential retest of 13520. If the DAX fails to close above 13205, we may see a push lower back into the key 13050 level. A close below this level could then see a quick move down into 12921 and 12882.
US SP500 – 2581 ( -4 or -0.15% ) With earnings season for the most part behind us now, will the S&P consolidate its gains or continue to push higher? We will be discussing this market in detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 21:00 – FED Chair Janet Yellen Speaks Wed 00:30 – PPI (monthly) Thu 00:30 – CPI (monthly) Thu 00:30 – Retail Sales (monthly) For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2574. Should this occur we will look for a move higher into 2590. If momentum is very strong and we break through 2590 easily, we cannot rule out a fast move to 2628. If we cannot hold above 2574, we will look for a move back down to 2562. A break below this may likely see a retest of 2550 and 2540, and if momentum is very strong on the downside we could see a sell-off into 2524.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.7658 ( +8 or +0.1% ) The Aussie Dollar spent the majority of last week in a narrow sideways range. Get Ready for a move. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate For a move higher we must now close above 0.7662. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 0.7729. A break and close above this level is likely to result in a move to 0.7797 before a pause; however if momentum is strong our next level higher is 0.7833. If we cannot close above 0.7662, we will look for a retest of 0.7617. A strong break and close below this level could see 0.7617, and below this our next level is back down to 0.7561. Should we see a very strong reversal to the downside a move to 0.7489 cannot be ruled out. EUR/USD – 1.1663 ( +54 or +0.47% ) With little news the EURO was very quiet last week posting a range of just 124 points. We will be discussing this market and the key scenarios this week in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 21:00 – Flash GDP (quarterly) Tue 21:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks Thu 21:00 – Final CPI (annual) Fri 19:30 – ECB President Draghi Speaks For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO close and hold above 1.1678 this week. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 1.1738 before another pause. A strong break above 1.1738 could result in a fast move to 1.1822 – 1.1834. If the EURO cannot close above 1.1678, we could see a fast move down into 1.1496. A break below this could be followed by another quick move into 1.1453; and should momentum remain strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.1347. GBP/USD – 1.3188 ( +113 or +0.86% ) Cable manage to find support at our key 1.3085 level and bounced strongly off this to close the week 113 points higher. This market is also in an interesting sideways range and we on alert for breakouts. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 20:30 – CPI (annual) Tue 21:00 – BoE Governor Carney Speaks Wed 20:30 – Unemployment Rate Thu 20:30 – Retail Sales Fri 01:00 – BoE Governor Carney Speaks For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable break and close back above 1.3277. Should this occur we will look for the Pound to rally into 1.3309 before a pause; however a strong break of this level could see a retest of 1.3534. If we cannot break above 1.3277, we will look for a retest of 1.3035. A break below this level could see this market sell-off quickly into 1.2868, and should the downside momentum continue we will look for a move to 1.2720.
USD/JPY – 113.51 ( -54 or -0.47% ) The $/YEN continues to struggle to hold above the 114 level and this will once again be the the key level this week. We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 04:45 – BoJ Governor Kuroda speaks Tue 21:00 – BoJ Governor Kuroda speaks Wed 10:50 – Prelim GDP (quarterly) For a continued move to the upside we must first see this market close above 113.86. Should this occur we will look for a retest of retest of the key 114 level. A hold above 114.00 could see a retest of 114.52; and a strong break through this may result in the $/YEN moving higher into 115.54. If we cannot close above 113.86 we will look for a move back down into 112.39. A break below this level is likely to result in a retest of 111.73; and as we mentioned last week: Should we break below 111.73 we could see very sharp into 111.09 .
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1275 ( +6 or +0.47% ) Gold only marginally closed higher last week and as such our levels remain unchanged. For a continued move higher we would like to see this market close above 1278, followed by a retest of 1294. A strong break above 1294 could see this market head back up to 1303, and if momentum remains strong we could see a move into 1313 before another pause. If Gold cannot close above 1278, we will look for a strong move back down into 1263 and 1257. A break and close below this level could then result in a move to 1247 before the week’s end.
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