This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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to avoid long delays. Enquire now INDICES AUSTRALASIA ASX – 6350 ( -22 or -0.35% ) The ASX continues within a sideway range. Will this be the week it breaks out? We will be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Wed 11:30 – Wage Price Index (quarterly) Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate Sat ALL Day – Parliamentary Elections For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6350. Should this occur we will look for a test of 6435, and if momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6500. If the ASX cannot hold above 6350, we will look for a move back down to 6276 for strong support. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6180, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 6140. EUROPE DAX – 12187 ( -257 or -2.07% ) The DAX was selling off aggressively last week but a strong reversal on Friday saw this market put in a short-term low. Can it hold? VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 19:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment Wed 16:00 – German Prelim GDP (quarterly) Thu 18:15 – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX close above 12198. Should this occur we will look for a move into 12384 before a pause. If momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a blow off move to 12566 and 12750. If the DAX fails to close above 12198, we will look for a move back down to 12044. Any break below this level however could see the DAX sell-off sharply into 11875 this week.
US SP500 – 2886 ( -61 or -2.07% ) The S&P has finally corrected off all-time highs and this sets up for a very interesting week this week. We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Wed 22:30 – Retail Sales Thu 22:30 – Building Permits, Philly FED Manufacturing Index Sat 00:00 – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2902. Should this occur we will look for a move to 2922, and potentially 2941 again before a pause. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 2960 and 2985. If we cannot close above 2902, we could see this market retest 2870. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2838; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a very sharp move down into 2812.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.7000 ( -23 or -0.33% ) With the Aussie Dollar sitting right at 70c, things are heating up in this market. We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Wed 11:30 – Wage Price Index (quarterly) Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate Sat ALL Day – Parliamentary Elections For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.7014. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7113, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7197 – 0.7236 before a pause. If the AUD cannot close above 0.7014, we will look for a move lower into 6958. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6934; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.6830.
EUR/USD – 1.1234 ( +32 or +0.29% ) The Euro continues to try and find support at the key 1.1200 level, and the bulls are doing their best to hold this level. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 19:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment Wed 16:00 – German Prelim GDP (quarterly) Wed 19:00 – Flash GDP For a move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1197 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a retest into 1.1249 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1335 before a further pause. If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1197, we could see another retest down into 1.1117 before another pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1033 before the week’s end.
GBP/USD – 1.3003 ( -172 or -1.31% ) We expect some news out of the UK this week with rumors flying around about the credibility of what remains of Theresa May’s role and Cable is setting up for a move off this 1.3000 handle. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 18:30 – Average Earnings Index (monthly), Unemployment Rate For a continued move to the upside, we must now see Cable close above 1.3110. Should this occur we will look for follow-through to 1.3277 this week. If momentum to the upside is very strong, we will look for a move to 1.3386. On the downside, if the Pound cannot close above 1.3110, this could result in a move to 1.2920. A break below this level however could see this market retest the important 1.2868. level; and if momentum to the downside is strong we cannot rule out a bigger move down to 1.2720.
USD/JPY – 109.97 ( -113 or -1.02% ) The YEN is also now at a critical level having close below 110.00 albeit testing the low. For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 110.67. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 111.09 and 111.73. A strong break and close above this level however could see the $/YEN rally into 112.22, and if momentum is extremely strong to the upside 112.68 cannot be ruled out. If we cannot close above 110.67, we are likely to see a break of 109.94 which could see a fast move down to 109.20. If the downside remains very strong we cannot rule out a sell-off into 108.33 by the end of the week.
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1285 ( +7 or +0.55% ) Gold is attempting to rally off its double bottom and once again is in a position to rally if buyers can hold support. For a continued move higher we must now see this market and hold above 1278. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1294. A strong close above this level could see further upside into 1303; and if momentum remains very strong, we could see a big push into 1313. If Gold cannot hold above 1278, we will look for a move back down into 1260. A strong break and close below this level however could see Gold trade quickly into 1247 before a pause.
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