This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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We may take multiple trades throughout the week and discuss in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
Trade View has entered the weekend Net Long.
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5980 ( + 98 or + 1.67% )
The ASX now back up near the magical 6000 mark by just a dozen or so points. This week will play an important role as to determine the next major move. A strong break past 6000 could see a lengthy upward extension, but a failed attempt could see a triple top formation which could see a move lower. Which camp are you in?
For the ASX to continue back higher we would like to see an early break and close past 5998 followed by a continuation of a long up bar reaching 6108. Once this is achieved we could see 6147 before another strong push see’s 6200.
If 6000 is it for the ASX then a continuation of the downside could be seen if 5998 becomes a solid level of resistance before a strong down bar breaks through 5892 reaching 5842. Once this occurs then 5790 comes back into play and the only way we see this level broken is with strong momentum and a further long down bar. As mentioned previously “we still see 5790 playing an important role in the direction of this market” If the break does occur the next levels we will be watching are 5754, 5715 and if the move is strong then an extension towards 5636 is not out of the question.
EUROPE
DAX – 12384 ( + 509 or + 4.29% )
And we’re off again. The DAX is now powering ahead.
As we are at all time highs we see the next level of importance to be 12460. Once this is broken we will discuss it in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
If a down move restarts then we would like to see a strong downside move back through 12164 before 11984 is seen again. If the move has strong momentum then we could see the DAX back near 11897 again.
US
S&P – 2102 ( + 55 or + 2.69% )
Last week we mention the movie margin call, but it looks like the markets were just shaking out some traders who were too heavy on the long side as the S&P rallied strong to close just above 2100 once again.
For the S&P to continue higher we would like to see an early break and close past 2112. Once this occurs then the area between 2120 – 26 will be a pivotal area to break on its way towards the area between 2173 – 80. Will it happen in one week, we will not underestimate it.
For the down move to restart we would like to see 2085 broken early in the week followed by strong long down bars through 2076 before testing 2050 again.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7676 ( + 48 or + 0.63% )
Not much is going on with this pair, it is a matter of time before the move is identified, until then we will watch our 2 levels 7718 upside and 7494 downside, therefore our comments remain the same.
For the up move to restart we would like to see a strong up bar break and close past 7718. This would then need to become a strong level of support before a strong push to reach 7927. The only way we see 8088 is by a strong short squeeze.
For the downside move to continue we would like to see a strong down bar break past 7494. Once this occurs we could see 7407 and if the momentum is strong then 7263 could be seen.
EUR.USD – 10617 ( – 348 or – 3.17% )
The EUR tumbled last week after reaching 110 agin. Looks like 110 is it, this is the key level before a new uptrend forms.
For the EUR to make a move higher we would like to see 10780 broken with a long up bar reaching 10899. This momentum could lead us back to 110.
For the downleg to continue its long term move we would like to see an early break back down past 10590. If the momentum is strong we could see 10452 tested. Further downside levels we will be watching are 10283, 10206, 10121, 10044.
GBP.USD – 14631 ( – 278 or – 1.86% )
As we have mentioned previously in many posts when the breaks occur past key levels the moves are strong. We see this again with the GBP as 14832 was broken and now we are 200 points lower.
For the GBP to restart its move higher we now need to see 14832 broken early with a long solid up bar before we can see 14950 again.
For the down move to continue and take another strong leg down then we would like to see an early strong break past 14563 reaching the area between 14404 – 14372.
USD.JPY – 12019 ( + 127 or + 1.07% )
Volatility here we come. Another Volatile week for this pair but this time with a move higher, but once again stopped short of breaking through 12064.
For the USD to continue its long term rally we would like to see a strong long up bar break through our key FICM level of 12064 before attempted to go through our next level of 12152. Once this occurs then 12184 could be seen and a possible extension towards 12275 could be attempted.
If 12064 becomes a solid level of resistance and the USDJPY restarts back lower then we would like to see strong early break back down past 12017 and 11991 before reaching 11931. If the downward momentum is strong then 11867 could be tested again.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1207 ( + 5 or + 0.42% )
After seeing an early ‘POP’ higher on GOLD, we are going to maintain our comments from previous weeks: In the previous weeks brief we said “One note of caution, if the rate rise does not occur and the wording by the FED changes, be ready for a sharp reversal in many instruments, GOLD will be one of them.”
For the upward move to continue we would like to see another strong up bar break past 1208 before pushing through 1216 and 1226. Once this occurs then we could see 1241 and a possible extension reaching 1252 which would complete the range set back in Oct 2013.
For the down move GOLD will need to break an important level between 1178 – 80. If this occurs with a long down bar then it could continue down towards 1167 and settling near 1149 again.
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