This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES
ASX – 5671 ( -70 or -1.22% )
The ASX continues to be range bound, closing right at our key level of 5671 however we remain on alert for a sustained move and potential breakout again this week. We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate
For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX close above 5746. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 5777, and a strong close above this could result in a quick move to 5823. If momentum is strong we will then look for a rally into 5875 and 5921.
If the ASX cannot close and hold above 5671, we are likely to see a quick move down into 5648. A close below this level may result in more selling into 5606 and if momentum is very strong a move down into 5582 and 5521 cannot be ruled out.
EUROPE
DAX – 12294 ( +151 or +1.24% )
The DAX has broken higher through key levels we discussed last week. Can the DAX continue to rally or will we see a consolidation throughout the week?
For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX hold above 12198. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 12384. A strong break of this level could see the DAX rally quickly to 12511; and if momentum is very strong we will look for a move to 12566.
If the DAX fails to hold above 12198, we will look for a move back down to 12115. A close below this level could see a move back down into 12044. A strong break and close below this level could see a fast move down into 11959.
US
SP500 – 2463 ( -11 or -0.44% )
The S&P finished the week lower on rising uncertainty on the impact of Hurricane Irma. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 22:30 – PPI (monthly)
Thu 22:30 – CPI (monthly)
Fri 22:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P break above 2465 and retest our key level at 2475. A break and close above this level may result in a retest of 2480, and if should we remain above this level we could see a retest of the all-time high at 2490.
If we cannot break above 2465, we could see a quick move down to retest 2450. A strong break and close below this level means we could see the S&P trade lower into 2445 and 2440. If momentum to the downside is strong, a move down into 2431 by the end of the week cannot be ruled out.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.8052 ( +85 or +1.07% )
The Aussie Dollar rallied strongly all week into Friday, where we saw a key reversal take place at our important 0.8118 level. This level, in addition to 80c are setting up to be very key levels again this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate
For a move higher we must now see this market hold above 0.8034. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 0.8118. A strong break above 0.8118 could see this market rally into 0.8162, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.8301.
If we cannot hold above 0.8034, we are likely to see a retest of the key 0.8000 level. A strong close below this level may then result in a retest of 0.7903, and if momentum remains strong we will look for a move into 0.7833. Should we break lower however, a move down into 0.7779 cannot be ruled out.
EUR/USD – 1.2031 ( +169 or +1.42% )
The EURO continues to remain strong despite stiff resistance at 1.2042.
For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO break and close strongly above 1.2042. Should this occur we will look for the EURO to rally into 1.2167, and if momentum is very strong we will look for a move into 1.2229.
If the EURO cannot hold above 1.2042, we will look for a move back down into 1.1834. A strong break of this level could then see a move back down into 1.1738, and if downside momentum is very strong we could quickly see a move lower into 1.1678.
GBP/USD – 1.3195 ( +241 or +1.86% )
The GBP is set for an interesting week following last week’s strong rally.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 18:30 – CPI (yearly)
Tue 18:30 – PPI (monthly)
Wed 18:30 – Unemployment Rate
Thu 21:00 – Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV
For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.3085, followed by move into 1.3277 before a pause. A break of this level is very likely to see the GBP/USD test 1.3309, and if momentum is very strong we will look for a move to 1.3534.
If we fail to hold above 1.3085, we may see this market trade back into 1.3035 before another pause. If momentum continues to the downside we will then look for a move into 1.2868, and a break below this level could see 1.2720 by the week’s end.
USD/JPY – 107.83 ( -241 or -2.19% )
The $/YEN was sold off sharply last week having broken multiple downside levels. This week is a key week for the $/YEN and we will be discussing this market exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
For a move to the upside we will look for this market to hold above our key level at 107.36, followed by a strong break and close above 108.31. Should this occur we will look for a move back up to 109.21 before a pause. If momentum remains strong to the upside, we will look for a move to 109.94 before the week’s end.
If we cannot hold above 107.36, the YEN may see further downside into 106.52. A strong break and close below this level could spell trouble for the YEN, with a very fast move down to 105.50.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1325 ( +34 or +2.63% )
GOLD continues to rally however like the Aussie Dollar it too was sold aggressively off our key 1355-1356 area.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market break and close above 1356. Should this occur we will look for a move into 1365, and a close above this level could see further upside into 1371 and 1375. If momentum remains very strong, a blow-off move to 1393 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot close above 1356, we will look for a strong move back down into 1333-1335. A strong break below this level could see GOLD sell off further into 1322, and if momentum is strong to the downside we could see a sharp move down into 1303.
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