This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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INDICES AUSTRALASIA ASX – 6055 ( +28 or +0.46% ) The ASX is attempting to break out to higher prices. Will we see follow-through this week? NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in Australia (Queen’s Birthday) VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6010 followed by a retest of 6070. Should this occur a strong break and close above 6070 may result in continued upside into 6140. A strong break above this level could see a strong move into 6206 by the week’s end. If the ASX cannot hold above 6010, we will look for a move back down to 5985. A strong break and close below this level could see the ASX retest 5921, and if downside momentum is strong we could quickly see a further move all the way back down into 5875. EUROPE DAX – 12791 ( +40 or +0.31% ) The DAX spent the majority of last week in a volatile sideways range and the question is now do we go higher or lower from here? We will be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 19:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment Thu 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV Thu 22:30 – ECB Press Conference For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX close above 12921 followed by a retest of 13050. Should this occur we will look for a strong move into 13205, and if momentum remains strong a push back higher into 13301. If the DAX fails to close above 12921, we may see a retest back down into the key level of 12714. A close below this level is likely to see a retest of 12600 and 12566; however if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a strong move to 12384.
US SP500 – 2778 ( +43 or +1.57% ) The S&P rallied into one of our key levels at 2778 and struggled to break above this level. Can we break higher this week? VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 22:30 – CPI (monthly) Wed 22:30 – PPI (monthly) Thu 04:00 – FED Interest Rate – LIVE TV Thu 04:00 – FOMC Press Conference Sat 00:00 – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close and hold above 2760. Should this occur we will look for a retest of the key 2785 level. A strong break and close above this level could see another retest of 2802 and 2808, and if momentum remains strong to the upside we cannot rule out a move to 2836. If we cannot hold above 2760, we could see this market continue to sell-off into 2736 before a pause. If momentum to the downside is strong we may see a move lower into 2704; and a close below this level may result in a move down to 2680 and 2660.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.7597 ( +30 or +0.4% ) Yet again the Aussie Dollar continues to its attempt to break higher , and we will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate For a move higher we must now see this market hold above 0.7550 and 0.7561, before a potential retest of 0.7617. Should this occur we could see a quick move into 0.7662 – 0.7677, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7729. If we cannot hold above 0.7550 and 0.7561, we will look for this market to retest 0.7489 and a break of this level yields a potential move into 0.7447 before another pause. A strong break and close below this level could then result in a sharp sell-off into 0.7364. EUR/USD – 1.1768 ( +108 or +0.93% ) The EURO managed to rally early in the week, however has come into resistance as we approach a key week for this market. We will be discussing the impact of this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV Thu 22:30 – ECB Press Conference Fri 19:00 – Final CPI (annual) For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1738. Should this occur, we will then look for this market to retest 1.1834; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.1927. If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1738, we may likely see a move lower into into the 1.1678. A strong break and close below this level however could see the EURO sell-off down into 1.1613, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.1496.
GBP/USD – 1.3407 ( +58 or +0.43% ) The Pound closed the week slightly higher and like other markets is now at a critical point. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 18:30 – Manufacturing Production (monthly) Mon 18:30 – Goods Trade Balance Tue 18:30 – Unemployment Rate Wed 18:30 – CPI (annual) Thu 18:30 – Retail Sales (monthly) For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.3309. Should this occur we will look for the Pound to rally into 1.3534 before a pause; however a strong break of this level could see a retest of 1.3875. If we cannot hold above 1.3309, we will look for a quick move down into 1.3277. A break of this level however may result in a retest of 1.3035. A break below this level could see this market sell-off quickly into 1.2868, and should the downside momentum continue we cannot rule out a move to 1.2720. USD/JPY – 109.51 ( +0 or +0.00% ) The $/YEN has remained unchanged for the week and like other markets we will be watching and discussing this market in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Fri 12:30 – BoJ Interest Rate Announcement For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 109.21. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 109.95, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 110.31 and 110.78. If we cannot hold above 109.21, we could see a fast move lower into 108.31. A break below this level may result in a retest of 107.75, and if the downside remains strong we could see a further sell-off into 107.36. A break below this level however could mean a very sharp move down to 106.52.
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1298 ( +5 or +0.39% ) GOLD once again continues to bounce in and out of our levels. Could this be the week this market forms a strong direction? For a continued move higher we must now see this market close and hold above 1294. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1303. A strong close above this level could see further upside into 1313; and if momentum remains very strong, we could see a big push into 1322 and 1333. If Gold cannot hold above 1294, we will look for a move back down into 1285. A strong break and close below this level however takes us down into the key 1276 – 1278 area which is very important and will be watched closely.
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