This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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We may take multiple trades throughout the week and discuss in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
Trade View has entered the weekend LIGHT NET LONG.
UPCOMING EVENTS
INTERMEDIATE WORKSHOP
MAY 2016 – 3 SEATS LEFT
BOOK YOUR SEAT FOR MAY 2016 HERE
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 4947 ( -66 or -1.32% )
As another week goes by we see more indecision on the ASX. We are now this market closely for a potential rally going into this week.
VOLATILITY ALERT: NAB Business Confidence on Tuesday, Unemployment on Thursday.
For a continued move higher we would like to see 4921 hold as support followed by a strong break through the important 4997 level. A strong break and close through this level may then see the ASX retest 5090 before a pause. Should we break this level, we will then look for a move to 5161; and if momentum remains very strong we may see a rally into 5206 and 5238.
If we fail to hold 4921, we will look for a move back down to 4890. A strong break and close below this level could see a fast move to 4848, and should downside pressure continue we will look for a move down into 4782. If we see a strong break and close below 4782, things could unwind quickly for the ASX as we could see sharp moves to 4761 and 4705.
EUROPE
DAX – 9610 ( -207 or -2.11% )
We saw some weakness in the DAX last week and the question remains: Are these markets showing signs of rallying??
For a continued move to the upside we would like to see a strong break and close through 9620. A break above this level could see the DAX retest 9822. Should we break 9822, we will be watching further upside moves into 10013 and 10158. If we continue to rally, a strong move into 10337 cannot be ruled out.
On the downside, we will be watching 9514 closely. A break and close below this level could likely result in a retest of 9447, and should we break below this level we will then look for a move down into 9386 and possibly 9322. If the move to downside remains very strong, we could see a very sharp move into 9128.
US
SP500 – 2047 ( -26 or -1.25% )
The S&P was for the most sideways as we saw moves down immediately bought back up. It is shaping up to be an interesting week with an expedited FED announcement on Tuesday, in addition to plenty of economic data being released. We will be covering these events in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERT: FED Announcement on Tuesday, Retail Sales on Wednesday, CPI on Thursday
For a move higher we would first like to see a the S&P hold above 2040. Should this occur we will look for a move back up into 2054. A strong break and close above this level could then see a retest 2076-2079 before a pause. If the move up is very strong, a break and close above 2079 could see the S&P move quickly rally into 2097.
If we cannot hold above 2040, we will watch for a move back down into 2032 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level could see the S&P head back down into 2019; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we could see a very fast move down into 2002.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7550 ( -126 or -1.64% )
Last week we asked the question “will the AUD top this week?”. It seems that a short-term top is indeed in place. With some important US reports coming out this week we should see some interesting movement in the AUD and these will be discussed in our MEMBER PORTAL.
VOLATILITY ALERT: NAB Business Confidence on Tuesday, Unemployment on Thursday.
For a move higher we would like to see the AUD close above 0.7561. A strong break and close above this level could see another strong push higher into 0.7662. If momentum to the upside remains strong, we will be looking for a retest of 0.7729; and should a rally persist we could see a bigger move into 0.7833.
If however we cannot hold we cannot hold above 0.7489, we will look for a quick move down to 0.7489. A break below this level could see another mode down into 0.7447, and a subsequent break below 0.7447 may result in a move back down to 0.7389 and 0.7364 before a pause.
EUR/USD – 1.1394 ( +3 or +0.03% )
The EURO is practically unchanged for the week and as such our levels and commentary remain the same from last week.
For a sustained move higher we would like to see a break and close above 1.1435. Should we break this level we will look for a move to 1.1496; and if momentum remains strong we could then see a very strong move to test 1.1613.
If we cannot break 1.1435 we will look for a move back down to 1.1385. A strong break and close below this level may likely result in a move to 1.1347, and if momentum remains strong we will look for a move to 1.1249. If a larger sell-off ensues, we will be watching 1.1201 and 1.1163.
GBP/USD – 1.4121 ( -103 or -0.72% )
The GBP sold off slightly last week and we now find ourselves at a very important level. We will have rolling coverage of this pair in the MEMBER PORTAL.
VOLATILITY ALERT: CPI on Tuesday, Interest rate on Thursday.
For a move to the upside we would like to see 1.4041 hold and a break through 1.4140. Should this occur we may likely see a move to test 1.4194. A break through this level could then result in moves into 1.4382 and potentially 1.4469 before a pause. If momentum remains strong, we will look for moves into 1.4503, 1.4538, and finally 1.4630.
If we cannot hold above 1.4041, we will look for a quick move down to 1.4006. A strong break and close below this level could see a further move down to 1.3937, and should we see continued downside we will look for a move to 1.3853. If momentum to the downside remains very strong, a sell-off into 1.3743 – 1.3725 cannot be ruled out.
USD/JPY – 108.08 ( -352 or -3.15% )
The $USD/JPY has been absolutely smashed with 6 consecutive days of relentless selling. The question on everyone’s lips now is:
“When will the BoJ intervene???”
We will also be covering this market closely in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
For a continued move to the upside we would like to see a break of 108.31. Should this occur we will then be looking for a move into 109.21. A strong break and close above 109.21 could see a quick move into 109.94 and if a V-bottom reversal takes shape, we could see a strong move all the way back up to 111.09.
If however the USD/JPY cannot hold above 107.75, we will look for a move down to 106.30 before a potential pause. Should we break below this level we could see continued downside pressure for the USD/JPY and quickly see moves into 105.36 and 104.97.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1239 ( +17 or +1.39% )
Amidst the global uncertainty and weak US dollar, Gold has shown signs of more upside and we are starting to see volatility pick up in this market.
For a continued move higher we would like to see 1222 hold as support, followed by a break and close through 1247. Should this occur we could see a strong move to 1258, and a break of this level could see a move into 1276 before another pause. If momentum to the upside remains very strong we will watch for a fast move to 1294.
If Gold cannot hold above 1222, we will look for a move back down to 1206. A strong break and close below this level we could see Gold trade back down to 1187 and 1181 before the end of the week.
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