This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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INDICES AUSTRALASIA ASX – 6112 ( -236 or -3.72% ) The ASX was sold off aggressively last week on the back of poor economic data. We will be discussing this market extensively in the MEMBER PORTAL this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX close above 6140 followed by a retest of 6206. Should this occur we will look for a move into 6276, and if momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6345 and 6374. If the ASX cannot close above 6140, we will look for a move back down to 6085 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6040, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 6002.
EUROPE DAX – 11941 ( -405 or -3.28% ) The DAX also saw the brunt of sellers with a very strong decline last week. Can the buyers step in this week? VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 19:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment Thu 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV Thu 22:30 – ECB Press Conference For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX close above 12198 followed by a move into 12384. A break of this level could then result into a quick move into 12566; and if we can break this level we cannot rule out a test of 12640. If the DAX fails to close above 12198, we expect to see a move back down into 11800 before a pause. A break below this level however means we may see very strong selling into 11640 and if the downside momentum is strong, WATCH OUT- we could see a sharp move into 11525.
US SP500 – 2871 ( -35 or -1.2% ) The S&P has come off its highs and this will be a key week for this market. We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Wed 22:30 – PPI (monthly) Thu 22:30 – CPI (monthly) Fri 22:30 – Retail Sales Sat 00:00 – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 2902. Should this occur we expect a quick retest of 2908; and a break above this level could set the stage for a bigger move into 2922 and 2930. If momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 2957 If we cannot hold above 2902 , we will look for a move back down to 2870. A break below this level may result in another quick move down into 2840; and if momentum to the downside is very strong we cannot rule out a move into 2808.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.7103 ( -90 or -1.25% ) The Aussie Dollar continues to remain bearish. We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate For a move higher we would like to see the AUD break above 0.7229, followed by a break and close above 0.7282. A strong break and close above this level could see a quick move to 0.7364 before a pause; and if momentum remains strong we will look for a move back up into 0.7447. If we cannot close above 0.7169, we will look for some stability at the key 0.7112 level. A failure here however may result in a move back down into 0.7070 before another potential pause. Any subsequent breaks of this level however may result in a very fast into and below 70c.
EUR/USD – 1.1552 ( -54 or -0.47% ) The Euro also struggled last week and all eyes will be on the ECB Interest Rate Announcement this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV Thu 22:30 – ECB Press Conference For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO close and hold above 1.1613 this week. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 1.1738 before another pause. A strong break above 1.1738 could result in a fast move to 1.1822. If the EURO cannot close above 1.1613, we could see a fast move down into 1.1496. A break below this could be followed by another quick move into 1.1453; and should momentum remain strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.1347. GBP/USD – 1.2915 ( -41 or -0.32% ) The Pound continues to chop about and is now attempting to form a base. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 18:30 – GDP (monthly) Tue 18:30 – Unemployment Rate Thu 21:00 – BoE Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV Fri 20:00 – BoE Governor Carney Speaks For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable remain above 1.2868, followed by a retest of 1.3035. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.3111; and if momentum is very strong we could see a move into 1.3191 by the week’s end. On the downside, should we break and close strongly below 1.2868, there is every chance we see a move lower into 1.2720. Should this level break however we could see a fast move down into 1.2622; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.2510.
USD/JPY – 111.06 ( -20 or -0.18% ) The $/YEN has remain basically sideways since last week and as such our levels remain unchanged. For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 111.09. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 111.73, and if momentum is extremely strong to the upside 112.68 cannot be ruled out. If we cannot hold above 111.09, we will look for a quick retest of 109.94. A break below this level however may result in a fast move down to 109.21, and if the downside remains strong we could see a strong sell-off into 108.31.
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1195 ( -11 or -0.91% ) GOLD was again down last week as the battle between buyers and sellers continues. For a move higher we would like to see this market close above 1206 on its way to 1222. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1238. A close above this level may likely see a further move to the upside into 1247 before a pause. Should momentum remain very strong, we could see a fast move into 1260. If Gold cannot close above 1206, we could see another quick decline into 1187. Any subsequent breaks of this level may result in further downside into 1180, and if momentum to the downside remains very strong we cannot rule out a move into 1170.
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