This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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THURSDAY 12TH NOVEMBER 2015
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SOME OF OUR LEVELS REACHED IN LAST WEEK’S MARKET BRIEF
#USDJPY reached a high of 12326.8 which was only 5.2 points lower than our FICM level of 12332.
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5203 ( – 27 or – 0.52% )
The ASX was a little unclear on direction last week as we saw an early move higher then back down to our FICM level of 5150. We saw this level tested twice last week, therefore feel it will play an important role again this week. As the ASX has not moved much our comments will remain the same:
For the upmove to restart we would like to see 5217 hold as a strong level of support before a move back past 5270 occurs. Once this is achieved then we need to see strong momentum break and close through a key levels of 5319 and 5366.
If last week’s drop is the start of a new down move then we need to see a strong break past 5217 reaching 5150. Once this level is reached then we need to see a long down bar break and close past 5150 reaching 5095 before extending down to 5040.
EUROPE
DAX – 11020 ( + 198 or + 1.83% )
The DAX moved higher breaking past the key area of 10868 early in the week but then had a couple of nervous moments coming back down to that level a number of times but then bounced higher closing above 11000.
If the DAX continues its strong momentum from last week then we would like to see a strong break past 11080 early in the week. Once this occurs then 11163 could just be a bystander as the DAX rallies towards the area between 11257 – 92. If the momentum is strong then we could see 11373 broken before reaching 11537. Now the DAX has been known to overextend its moves from time to time and if it occurs this time then 11619 could be on the cards.
For the down move to restart a strong move back down past 10868 could see the DAX near 10793 and 10684 again. A break past 10684 could see the DAX near 10497 very quickly. If the momentum is strong then 10389 could bee seen before it settles near 10318.
US
S&P – 2099 ( + 19 or + 0.91% )
Last week we said “The S&P keeps pushing higher, but we are slightly cautious”. We saw that the S&P could break past 2112. This is the KEY level.
For the upward move to take another leg higher would like to see an early strong break and close past the Key level of 2112. If this occurs then the pusher higher could be very quick passing 2120, 2137 reaching 2148. If this level is broken then we will discuss further moves higher in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
If the S&P fails to break above 2112 then we would like to see an early break and close past 2087 – 76 before testing the key area between 2050 – 46 again. This area will then need to be broken with a long down bar before reaching 2033, 2044 and finally 2010.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7040 ( – 94 or – 1.32% )
The AUD tried to move higher early in the week with no success, breaking down on Friday.
For the AUD to move move back higher we would like to see 7050 before another push towards 7116 occurs. If the momentum is strong then we could see the AUD back to 7177 and possibly 7230.
For the AUD to continue lower then we would like to see an early break and close past a key level of 6996. Once this occurs we could see 6957 with a possible push testing 6893.
EUR.USD – 10737 ( – 271 or – 2.46% )
The EUR followed other majors down against the USD, taking an extra leg down on Friday.
For the EUR to restart higher we would like to see a strong hold above last weeks low of 10707 before bouncing back above 10780 reaching the area between 10899 – 10925.
If the EUR takes another leg down and continues lower then we would like to see a strong break and close past 10707 reaching 10590. Once this level is broken we could see 10452. If this level is broken we will discuss further downside moves in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
GBP.USD – 15043 ( – 384 or – 2.49% )
The GBP also fell last week breaking past the lows of September.
For the GBP to restart a move back up we would like to see 14953 hold as a strong level of support before pushing past 15187 again. Once this occurs we would like to see a strong long up bar break and close past the area between 15250 – 89 before another attempt at getting back up to 15458.
For the down move to continue we would like to see 14953 reached. Once this occurs we would like to see a strong long down bar break and close past this level reaching 14812. If the momentum is strong then we could see 14699 reached before this pairs takes a breather.
USD.JPY – 12316 ( + 256 or + 2.12% )
USD STRENGTH, once the USDJPY broke above 12151 (which was the level it struggled with last week, POP and no drop.
For the USD to continue the strong push higher we would like to see a strong long up bar break and close past our key level of 12332. Once this occurs then we could see 12403 and possibly 12464 reached. If the momentum stays strong then 12558 could be in its sights.
For this pair to restart back down we would like to see 12332 act as a strong level of resistance before a move down past 12275 occurs reaching 12225 with the possibility of seeing 12184 and settling near 12151.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1089 ( – 53 or – 4.64% )
GOLD FELL OFF A CLIFF last week breaking through the lows of both September and October 2015. But has closed near the lows of July/August 2015. It will be an Interesting week for GOLD and the USD with the FED speaking on Thursday.
For GOLD to have any chance of moving back up we need to see it settle around this area with a possible low of 1069. Once this occurs we could see a sideways move before a push back up towards 1103. Any breaks above 1103 will be discussed in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
If the down move is not finished and we see another leg down then we need to see a break past 1069. This could then lead the metal down to 1043 and 1025 with the possibility of reaching 1005.
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