This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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We may take multiple trades throughout the week and discuss in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
Trade View has entered the weekend Net Long.
ASX – 5837 ( – 102 or – 1.72% )
5998 and down she goes. Looks like the Bearish Divergence finally caught up to the rally and down went the ASX closing only 5 point from our level of 5842 mentioned last week.
For the ASX to regain composure and start the move higher again we would like to see a strong early break and close past both 5842 and 5892. If this occurs with strong momentum we could see the ASX back up near 5982 quickly. If the strong momentum continues past this level we could see a new move past 6000 reaching 6108.
As the first process down has started, its continuation would be confirmed if we see a strong break down past a key FICM level of 5790. If the downward momentum picks up momentum then 5754 and 5715 could be seen quickly. We will be watching to see if a strong break occurs past 5715 which could lead the ASX to an ambitious level of 5636.
DAX – 11524 ( + 128 or + 1.12% )
“The DAX is not waiting for anyone atm, it may pause for a second or two but once it catches it’s breath off it goes again. We feel that if these moves by the DAX are the real deal then the rest of the markets will need to catch up, either way get ready for some action over the next week or two.”
As we continue to see all time highs again we will be watching the momentum to decide on direction. If the up moves are fast then we will look for 11621 as our first level which will complete the range. If the momentum continues strong and the other world indices rally the DAX could extend towards 11791. Any short term moves will be discussed further in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
If the downside move starts then we would like to see an early break past the area between 11292 – 57, if the move is strong then we could see 11080 very quickly. If this level is also broken then 10941 could play an important role in deciding the next phase of the down move.
S&P – 2072 ( – 35 or – 1.66% )
Last week we said “….This could be the start of a new leg up unless some unexpected news comes out to force it lower.” and the news was better than expected job numbers which could indicate an early rise in rates, therefore markets go down.
Simple, Good news is now Bad news until it becomes Good news again.
If the down move was just a quick flush of traders and we see another move higher this week we will be looking for an early strong break and close past both 2076 and 2085 before another attempt at breaking back above 2101 is made. The next key level will be 2126.
For the down move to continue we would like to see an early continuation of Fridays move down towards 2050. If the momentum is strong and we see a break then 2024 could be next. If the down move is significant then an ambitious level of 2010 could be seen.
AUD.USD – 7714 ( – 94 or – 1.20% )
The AUD moved sideways again last week closing only 4 points below our lower break level of 7718, therefore we will maintain our upside and downside break levels for now, comments remain the same.
For the up move to restart we would like to see the AUD break back above 7927 before reaching 8088 Once this occurs we can look at further upside moves.
For the downside move to continue we would like to see a strong down bar break past 7718 very quickly. Once this occurs we could see 7494.
EUR.USD – 10842 ( – 353 or – 3.15% )
“No short squeeze here, maybe fake breakouts as the EUR continued lower last week. I think the big question is that the markets are still trying to work out what the true value of the EUR really is with the stimulus.” This time due to possible further USD strength.
If there is some sort of short squeeze and the EUR moves up again then we would like to see an early break and close back past 10899 before a push towards 11038. If the upward momentum then continues the EUR could find itself near 11315 – 96 very quickly..
Now that the EUR has taken another significant leg lower we see the next big key level being 10780. Once this is broken then the move lower could get very aggressive therefore no downside targets will be mentioned. However will be discussed further downside moves in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
GBP.USD – 15033 ( – 401 or – 2.60% )
Our 15522 FICM level was enough to stop this pair in its tracks. Continued USD strength has possibly re-started the down move. A clear break of previous lows in Jan 2015 could start a new down leg.
For the GBP to move higher again we would like to see a solid break and close past 15140 and the new Key level set of 15209.
For the down move to continue we would like to see an early break down past 14950 reaching 14832. If the downward momentum continues strong then we could see 14563.
USD.JPY – 12079 ( + 115 or + 0.96% )
And POP goes the USDJPY, it has now closed slightly above a key level of 12064. It’s now up to the FED before this pair moves past 12600
For the USD to continue its rally we would like to see 12064 hold as a strong level of support before a strong momentum move occurs reaching 12184. If the momentum is strong and USD strengthens across all majors then the next level we will be watching is 12649. Intra-day moves will be discussed in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
If the USDJPY restarts back lower then we would like to see strong early break and close past 12064 moving towards 11931. Further breaks could see USDJPY reaching 11813 followed by 11679.
GOLD – 1167 ( – 46 or – 3.79% )
It looks like my comment about “Someone big really does not want GOLD to go up” is no other than the US FED’s imminent rate rise. GOLD fell away hard on Friday better than expected jobs number and closed back inside the Standard Deviation Channel.
For the upward to have any chance we need to see a strong early break and close back above 1178 – 80 area. Once this occurs then the next level of importance will be 1208.
If Friday’s move was the start of a continued move lower then a solid break past 1149 could see GOLD near 1103 very, very quickly.
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