This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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We may take multiple trades throughout the week and discuss in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
Trade View has entered the weekend Net Long.
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5484 ( – 268 or – 4.66% )
The ASX just went down all week with strong momentum settling just above an old area between 5463 – 44.
For the upmove to restart we need to see the area between 5463 – 44 hold as a strong level of support before a move back up towards 5542 is made. We would like to see a strong up break break reaching 5595 where the momentum would need to continue before breaking through another key FICM level of 5636. If we see continued upward momentum we could see an extension reaching 5715.
If the downward move continues strong this week we would like to see the area between 5463 – 44 broken with a long down bar pushing towards 5418. Once this occurs 5367 could be seen very quickly. If 5367 is also broken we could see the ASX near 5319 were it could find some support. If the downside move becomes aggressive we will discuss it in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
EUROPE
DAX – 11433 ( – 407 or – 3.44% )
And the Greeks defer payment, an unusual solution but one that buys them time. Continued uncertainty in the Eurozone helped the DAX lower last week. One thing to note is that the DAX has completed its range and is now in a potential slowdown process.
For the upmove to restart back up we would like to see a strong early break and close back up above the area between 11227 – 92. This could lead the DAX towards 11373. Once this level is broken we could see the DAX reach 11537 very quickly possibly extending towards 11621. If the Greek situation is sorted expect the DAx near 11868.
If we see continued issues with Greece the levels we will be watching closely will be 11163, 11080 and 10941 and finally 10869. If 10869 is broken with a long down bar we will discuss the potential downside targets in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
US
S&P – 2093 ( – 16 or – 0.76% )
The S&P tried to stay above the key level of 2112 but was unable to. Also when it reached 2100 we saw a big seller selling 1400+ lots at a time to try to push it through and after a number of attempts they succeeded as the S&P fell to a low of 2085 before bouncing back above 2090.
If the upward move is to restart we need to see a strong up bar break through 2100 before the two important levels of 2112 and 2126 are reached and broken. If the upward momentum is strong we could see 2137 broken with a long up bar reaching 2148.
If the S&P cannot get back above 2100 early this week we could see 2085 and 2076 broken with a long down bar before reaching the full downside range and possibly finding support near 2050 – 46.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7618 ( – 24 or – 0.31% )
An Early rally by the AUD was short lived as it fell back down to close 24 points lower than last weeks close. Therefore our comments remain the same.
For the upmove to restart we would like to see strong support at 7635 before moving towards 7718 again. If the upward momentum maintains then 7778 could be seen.
For the longer term downside move to continue a strong break past 7635 could see the AUD in a bit of a FREE FALL reaching 7498 very quickly. If the move is strong then it extend towards 7407.
EUR.USD – 11113 ( + 121 or + 1.10% )
The EUR moved higher early in the week to only get unstuck near its full range of 11396 with a high of 11379. It then fell back down with USD strength coming in across all majors late in the sessions.
If the EUR is to move back up again we would like to see a solid break past 11166 before pushing back past 11315 and finally reaching 11396 again. We will then like to see a strong long up bar break through this level if we are going to reach 11471.
If the later stages of last week have already set the trend for this week then a clean break past 11038 will see the EUR back down near 10941 and 10899. If these levels are broken with a long down bar then 10780 could be seen quickly and possibly extending to 10590.
GBP.USD – 15267 ( – 19 or – 0.12% )
GBP has settled around this area for now. Therefore our comments remain the same.
For the GBP to restart higher we would like to see the area between 15209 – 38 hold before a rebound towards 15366 is achieved. Once this occurs then our key FICM level of 15448 comes back into play. This will then need to be broken with a strong long up bar break and close before we see 15644 again.
For the down move to really start we would need to see the Key FICM level of 15209 broken early in the week with a long down bar. Then it will need to become a solid level of resistance pushing the pair down past 15140 and a strong push is needed before 14950 is seen.
USD.JPY – 12560 ( + 146 or + 1.18% )
…….and another ‘POP” from the USDJPY.
For the USD to continue its rally we need to see a strong up bar break through 12649 before reaching 12725. If the upside momentum is strong and we see another break through 12725 then we will discuss the next levels within our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
For this pair to move back down we need to see a solid long down bar reaching 12403 before a move down to 12275 is seen. If the downward momentum is strong then we will be watching 12225 and the area between 12184 – 52 very closely.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1171 ( – 19 or – 1.60% )
Another down week for GOLD as the possibility of an Interest rate rise in the US increases.
For the upward move to restart we need to see GOLD break back above the area between 1178 – 80 before reaching 1192. Once this occurs GOLD could be back above 1200 and near 1208 very quickly.
For the down move to restart and continue the area between 1180 – 78 needs to become a solid level of resistance before GOLD reaches 1167 and finally 1161 again. If we see continued downward momentum then 1149 will not be far away.
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