This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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Trade View has entered the weekend Light Net Short.
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5354 ( + 66 or + 1.25% )
The ASX rebounded last week pegging back all the losses from the previous week. The one thing to note is that the ASX has closed below a Key FICM level of 5367 after reaching a low of 5175 which was only 2 points lower than our FICM level of 5177 mentioned last week.
For the up move to continue we need to see another long up bar break and then close above 5367. Once this occurs we would like to see further long uop bars break 5392 eventually finding short term resistance near 5448 – 63. If the upward momentum is strong then we could see an extension towards 5524.
For the down move to continue we would like to see an early break with a long down bar break and close below the 5270 – 64 area. This could then lead the ASX towards 5217. One this level is reached and broken with strong momentum the ASX could find itself finding some support near the area between 5177 – 51
EUROPE
DAX – 10081 ( + 142 or + 1.43% )
The DAX is now entering into uncharted waters. We saw 2 large bars towards the end of the week, 1 down and 1 up. It looks like the markets want to test these water and see what’s on the other side. As we are familiar with the DAX we don’t underestimate a strong push into new highs and then it will depend on the world markets if they want to follow before the DAX continues in that direction..
For the up move to continue this week we would like to see the area between 10035 – 75 hold as a strong level of support before a strong push towards 10146 is made. Once this level is broken then we could see 10258 very quickly.
If the DAX has trouble staying above 10,000 and a down move restarts then we would like to see an early break past 9896 and 9829 before a push towards 9745 is made. This will then be the first Key level needed to be broken before we see 9673 and 9581.
US
S&P – 2077 ( + 10 or + 0.48% )
The S&P moved higher last week and now we are seeing a similar grinding pattern that occurred during most of 2014. Is this really healthy market behaviour? We will wait and see. Even though the S&P has moved higher our comments from last week remain the same.
For the up move to continue we would like to see a strong break and close past 2088. If the Grind continues and we see a further break past 2100, we could then see the S&P settle near 2123 by year end.
For the down move to start we would like to see a strong break and close below 2057 reaching 2023 and 2010.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 8325 ( – 177 or – 2.08% )
Last week we said “The AUD seems to be going through the motions at the moment, moving up and down during the week. We still feel the AUD has nothing to offer.” Well last week the motion was down.
For the up move to restart we would like to see and early break back above 8378 before reaching 8461. once this level is broken then we could see 8563 again.
Another move down by the AUD could start if we see an early break past 8284. This could then see the pair near 8139 very quickly.
EUR.USD – 12283 ( – 168 or – 1.35% )
The EUR took another leg lower last week but with very little force. But it is down for the moment and with Mario Draghi always hinting of further easing then it will be very hard for it to go up for now.
If the EUR is to have any chance for an upmove then we would like to see an early break and close back past 12369 before reaching 12491.
For the down move to continue we would like to see an early break past 12258 before reaching 12048. If this level is broken with strong momentum and 120 does not provide support the EUR could be in a FREE FALL.
GBP.USD – 15585 ( – 67 or – 0.43% )
The GBP is ever so slightly moving lower.
For the GBP to move higher we would like to see a solid break and close back above 15674 before reaching 15844.
If the GBP is to continue lower we see 15522 as a Key level that will need to be broken with strong momentum before a push towards 15386 is made.
USD.JPY – 12148 ( + 287 or + 2.42% )
“The USD just keeps on going and going and going”
I did a webinar a few months back when the USDJPY was trading at 102 – 103 and I joked that if it broke out to the upside we could see 126 by year end. If you would like to discuss further you may in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
If the USDJPY has over extended its move and we see a move back down it could be very quick. This could occur if we see a strong break and close below 11920. This could then see the pair near 11813 very quickly.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1192 ( + 27 or + 2.32% )
All we can say is this “…Caution should be taken if you decide to chase explosive moves.” Sometimes its best to leave them alone or take a contrarian view and go against the grain.
For the upward move to continue then we would like to see an early break and close back above 1208 which will then help GOLD push past both 1216 and 1226 on its way towards 1241.
For GOLD to continue lower we would like to see another strong break and close past 1180 before reaching 1167. Once this is broken then we could see GOLD near 1149.
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