This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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Trade View has entered the weekend Net Long.
UPCOMING INTERMEDIATE WORKSHOP 17th – 18th October 2015
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AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5008 ( – 266 or – 5.04% )
The ASX struggled to move higher last week as continued pressure came from around the world on many fronts including weak Chinese data.
For the upmove to restart then we would like to see an early break back above 505 and 5095 before a long up bar break and close past 5150 occurs. If the momentum continues strong then we could see 5217 reached. If the markets have overextended themselves to the downside then 5270 and 5319 are not out of the question.
If the ASX breaks down through 5000 early in the week then the downward process could reach 4922 very quickly. Once this level is broken the 4863 could be seen just as fast. If the downward momentum is strong then the lows of AUG and 4754 will play a pivotal role in deciding the next direction of the ASX. If this level is broken with strong momentum then we will discuss downside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
EUROPE
DAX – 10026 ( – 276 or – 2.68% )
Even though the DAX was down by 200+ points for the week, it is more of a sideways move than anything else. Even Mario Draghi cannot help these markets at the moment with his increased readiness to stimulate Europe’s sluggish economy further.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-04/europe-s-economy-needs-action-not-words
For the upmove to restart the DAX needs to see a strong break and close above 10258 before reaching 10473. Once this occurs we could see 10684 reached before another strong push past 10793 and finally reaching 10868.
If the DAX is continues down through 10000 then we could see 9896 followed by 9829 finally reaching 9745 before taking its first breather. Once this level is reached and if the momentum continues strong then 9672 and 9589 might provide some resistance, if they don’t then we could be in another FREE FALL scenario. If this occurs then we will discuss downside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
US
S&P – 1923 ( – 65 or – 3.27% )
The S&P is not happy, Bad Job Number, Bad Data, possible Interest rate hike. Bad News.
If you think you can’t sleep, image how poor Janet Yellen Feels.
For the upward move to restart we would like to see 1901 hold as a strong level of support before pushing back past 1927 and towards the 1947 – 57 area. Once this occurs we would need to see a long up bar break through towards the area between 1981 – 90. If the momentum is strong then 2010 here we come.
If the S&P fails to break above 1927 then a break down past 1901 could see 1882 quickly followed by 1869, 1857 and finally a test of the AUG 2015 low of 1834. If 1834 is also broken then we will discuss further downside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 6908 ( – 261 or – 3.64% )
Continued downside break for the AUD, this could get really ugly if the downside continues.
If the AUD has any chance of a move higher then we would like to see a strong break back above 6953 early in the week before bouncing back towards 7116. If the upward momentum is strong then 7263 won’t be far away.
If the AUD continues lower we would like to see 6953 become a solid level of resistance before an attempt is made at breaking through both 6809 and 6761. Once this break occurs then 6572 could be seen with a possible extension towards 6460.
EUR.USD – 11145 ( – 35 or – 0.31% )
Some sideways movement for the EUR at the moment. As mentioned in the DAX post lets see if Mario Draghi can say/do something to make the pair move.
As the EURO has not moved much, our comments from last week remain the same.
If the EUR regains its composure and tries to rally again then we need to 11166 hold as a strong level of support before an early break back above 11315 is achieved. Once this occurs we need to a strong long up bnar break and close past 11395 before reaching 11471. Dare I say it that we could see the EUR back near 11666 for a complete reversal?
If the EUR breaks down past 11166 early in the week we could see 11038 quickly. A break through 11038 could see our downside FICM level of 10925.
GBP.USD – 15167 ( – 223 or – 1.45% )
While the EUR moved sideways, the GBP continued lower and did not look like it was going to recover at all. The one thing to note is that we are at the lows of MAY 2015 which completes the downside range
For the GBP to restart its run higher we would like to see 15248 broken early in the week with a long up bar. Once this occurs then we could see 15364 followed by 15456.
For the down move to take another leg down then we would like to see a long down bar break and close past 15139. If this occurs then we see 14950 as being the next level reached before settling near 14832.
USD.JPY – 11903 ( – 271 or – 2.23% )
“It is an Interesting time for the FED as it is caught between a rock and a hard place”
Raise rates – risk of complete market meltdown
Keep rates on hold – high possibility of (dare I say it) QE4?
Listen to and Watch the Markets, not the media.
For the USD to restart its move higher we would like to see strong support at 11867 before moving past 11924. Once this occurs then a push back up towards 12011 could be seen. If the upward momentum continues strong then 12064 could provide a nice level for the USD to rally towards 12151.
For this pair to continue lower we would like to see a strong break and close past 11867. This could then lead to another FREEFALL down towards 11679. Once this occurs we could then test the lows of 11612. If these are broken then we will discuss further downside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1121 ( – 12 or – 1.06% )
“It looks like we need a market meltdown for GOLD to rally. (Safe haven Play)”
As GOLD has not moved much, our comments from last week remain the same.
For GOLD to move higher again we would like to see a strong break early past 1134 before reaching 1149 again. Once this occurs then the area between 1161 – 67 will play a major role is allowing a push high towards 1178.
For GOLD to continue back down, 1134 needs to hold as strong resistance before a strong move down towards 1103 occurs. This could then lead to 1091 and possibly 1069.
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