This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5179 ( – 23 or – 0.44% )
An early move up followed by a down move enabled the ASX top close pretty flat last week. Therefore our comments remain the same:
For the upmove to continue strong we would like to see an early break back above 5270 reaching the area between 5312 – 30. Once this is reached we could see a move towards 5365. The next real test for the ASX will come at 5418 where we will need to see a strong long up bar break and close before reaching the area between 5440 – 62.
If the ASX has made its run and we see a downside move then the area between 5312 – 30 needs to hold as a strong level of resistance before another break back down past 5217 reaching 5150. If 5150 is broken then 5095 could be seen.
EUROPE
DAX – 10862 ( – 431 or – 3.82% )
The DAX took a bit of a hit last week falling over 4%. We will be watchog for leads from this market moving forward.
For the upmove to continue we would like to see 10867 hold as a strong level of support before another push up towards 10941. Once this level is broken then 11080 could be reached. If the momentum is strong then the DAX could potentially fade all the way back up through to the area between 11257 – 92. Once this area is broken we could see the DAX near 11373.
For the down move to restart then 10867 needs to be hard to break. If this occurs then we could see 10793 and 10684 very quickly. If the momentum is strong and we see a long down bar break past 10684 then 10497 will not be far away.
US
S&P – 2090 ( – 2 or – 0.10% )
A little shake out and back to flat. Therefore our comments remain the same:
For the upward move to continue and start another leg higher we would like to see 2101 broken early in the week reaching 2112. 2112 will then need to be broken with a strong long up bar before reaching the area between 2120 – 26. Once this occurs look for a test of the ATH’s @ 2135.
If the S&P cannot get past 2112 again then a push lower past 2076 could see a repeat of the previous week testing the key area between 2050 – 46 again. This area will then need to be broken with a long down bar before reaching 2033, 2044 and finally 2010.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7335 ( + 144 or + 2.00% )
The ASX took a bid last week to move up nicely and stay up.
If the AUD is to take another leg higher we would like to see 7297 hold as a strong level of support before a push towards 7407 occurs. Once this level is broken we could see this pair near 7494 very quickly.
If the AUD cannot stay above 7297 then 7263 and 7230 could be bystanders as the AUD break down reaching 7171 and 7116 quickly.
EUR.USD – 10877 ( + 285 or + 2.69% )
POP, no increase in QE from the ECB and we are off.
For the EUR to continue higher we would like to see 10758 hold as a strong level of support before a long up bar break and close past 10924 occurs. If the momentum is strong then 11038 could be seen before another push higher towards 11166 occurs.
If last week’s move was just a once off then for the EUR to take a leg back down we would like to see a strong break and close past 10758 before a quick move back down to 10590 and 10452 occurs.
GBP.USD – 15102 ( + 71 or + 0.47% )
A bit of a Chop, Chop scenario for the cable traders last week with the pair moving lower early in the week followed by a strong move back up.
For the GBP to continue a move higher then we would like to see a strong break past 15187 reaching 15248. Once this level is reached then we will need to see a strong long up bar break and close past 15308 before the next push higher.
For the longer term down move to continue we would like to see 15061 broken early in the week reaching 14953. Once this level is also broken we could see the pair near 14812.
USD.JPY – 12310 ( + 31 or + 0.25% )
Another sideways move for the USD with a slight move higher, therefore our comments remain the same:
For the USD to continue the strong push higher we would like to see a strong long up bar break and close past our key level of 12332. Once this occurs then we could see 12403 and possibly 12464 reached. If the momentum stays strong then 12558 could be in its sights.
For this pair to restart back down we would like to see 12275 act as a strong level of resistance before a move down past 12225 occurs reaching 12184 before settling near 12151.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1086 ( + 29 or + 2.74% )
A bit of a shake out last week before a POP.
For GOLD to continue higher we need to see 1069 hold as a strong level of support before another attempt at breaking past 1091. Once this is broken then we could see 1103. Any breaks above 1103 will be discussed in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
If the longer term down move is to restart then 1069 needs to be broken early before we see 1043 and 1025 with the possibility of extending its reach towards 1005.
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