This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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We may take multiple trades throughout the week and discuss in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
Trade View has entered the weekend LIGHT NET SHORT.
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SOME OF OUR LEVELS REACHED IN LAST WEEK’S MARKET BRIEF
#SPX reached a high of 2101 which was one of our levels mentioned last week.
#GBPUSD reached a high of 15467 which was only 9 points higher than our level of 15458
#GBPUSD reached a low of 15242 which was only 8 points below our level of 15250
#USDJPY reached a high of 12150.8 which was only 0.2 pips lower than our FICM level of 12151.
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5230 ( – 167 or – 3.09% )
The ASX struggled all week with all upside breaks sold down quickly.
For the upmove to restart we would like to see 5217 hold as a strong level of support before a move back past 5270 occurs. Once this is achieved then we need to see strong momentum break and close through a key levels of 5319 and 5366.
If last week’s drop is the start of a new down move then we need to see a strong break past 5217 reaching 5150. Once this level is reached then we need to see a long down bar break and close past 5150 reaching 5095 before extending down to 5040.
EUROPE
DAX – 10822 ( + 2 or + 0.02% )
The DAX went sideways, so nothing to say here. Comments remain the same:
For the upmove to continue this week we would like to see a strong break and close past our FICM level of 10868. Once this occurs then we could see 10941 followed by 11080. Continued strong momentum could see the DAX push towards 11163 then 11257 and 11292 before it takes a breather.
For the down move to restart then 10868 needs to become a solid level of resistance before a push past 10793 and 10684. A break past 10684 could see the DAX near 10497 very quickly. If the momentum is strong then 10389 could bee seen before it settles near 10318.
US
S&P – 2080 ( + 9 or + 0.43% )
The S&P keeps pushing higher, but we are slightly cautious. Comments remain the same.
For the upward move to continue we would like to see an early break past 2085 before we see 2101 again. If the upward momentum is strong then we could see 2112 again, but we will be monitoring moves higher in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
If the S&P fails to break above 2085 we could see a strong move back down towards the key area between 2050 – 46 again. This area will then need to be broken with a long down bar before reaching 2033, 2044 and finally 2010.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7134 ( – 82 or – 1.14% )
The AUD struggled last week moving lower on the expectation that the RBA might reduce rates on Melbourne Cup day. Let’s wait and see if the RBA decides to cut.
If no action is taken and the AUD moves back higher we would like to see 7177 broken early in the week with a possible move towards the area between 7230 – 63. If the momentum continues strong then we could see a FULL FADE back up towards 7330.
For the AUD to continue lower then we would like to see an early break past 7050 before reaching 6996. 6996 will then need to be broken with a long down bar reaching 6957. Once this occurs then we could see 6893 tested.
EUR.USD – 11008 ( – 9 or – 0.08% )
The EUR needs went sideways with a little volatility during the week. Therefore our comments remain the same.
For the EUR to restart higher we would like to see an early break back above 11038 before reaching 11166. Dare I say it that if the upward momentum gets traction then we see a complete FADE back to 11315?
If the EUR continues lower then we would like to see a strong break and close past 10925 before we see 10780.
GBP.USD – 15427 ( + 116 or + 0.76% )
After last week’s drop the GBP reversed the whole move in 2 days.
For the GBP to continue its run higher we would like to see an early break and close past our FICM level of 15458 before reaching 15533. If the upward momentum continues strong then we will be looking for the pair to reach 15591 before settling near 15644.
For the down move to restart then 15458 needs to become a solid level of resistance followed y a leg down through 15366. Once this level is broken we could see 15280 stand aside as the GBP reaches 15250.
USD.JPY – 12060 ( – 85 or – 0.70% )
Well, Well, Well. The USD could not get past our FICM level of 12151 with a high of 12150.8
POP ’n’ Drop and Drop ‘n’ POP all week.
Watch for the break. The two levels we are watching are: 12151 Upside, 11867 Downside.
ONCE AGAIN – Listen to and Watch the Markets, not the media.”
For the USD to restart its move higher we would like to see a strong break and close past.
Once this occurs then the levels we will be watching are: 12184, 12225, 12275 and 12332
For this pair to continue lower we would like to see 12064 continue to be a strong level of resistance. This could then lead to 11977 and back down to 11926 before reaching 11867 and then making its final decision. A strong break past 11867 will be discussed in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1142 ( – 22 or – 1.89% )
The GOLD rally lost all of its steam last week with the exception of Wednesday when we saw a 30 point ranging day before the down move continued. One thing to note is that the downside range has now been met.
For GOLD to move higher again we would like to see an early strong break and close past 1149 pushing towards the area between 1161 – 67. Once this occurs we would like to see another push towards 1178 – 80 before reviewing the move.
If the down move is not finished and we see another leg then a break past 1134 could see 1123 followed by 1111 before settling near 1103.
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