This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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Trade View has entered the weekend Net Long.
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5752 ( + 87 or + 1.54% )
The ASX Index is either in front of the world markets or behind by 1 day. The reason we say this is that when the majors rally the ASX falls away and when they fall away the ASX rallies. The important thing to note is that once the ASX went past 5800 it fell back down fairly quickly. Therefore the area between our FICM level of 5790 and 5800 will be watched closely this week.
For the upmove to continue higher we need to see a solid long up bar break and close past our FICM level of 5790. Once this occurs then 5842 and 5892 could be seen within the same day’s trading. If the momentum continues strong then 5940 will be the first level of potential resistance before the ASX reaches 5982 again.
If 5790 is too hard to break and the downside move starts early in the week then 5715 will need to be broken with a long down bar. This could lead the ASX back down towards another key FICM level of 5636. If this level is broken with strong momentum then 5595 could become a spectator as the ASX passes through down to 5542 were it might find some temporary support.
EUROPE
DAX – 11433 ( – 407 or – 3.44% )
Volatility is coming back into the DAX with each news story about Greece causing gyrations that make it look worse than it really is. Will Greece leave the Eurozone? Ask yourself this, if they do what would plan ‘B’ be for them? If you cannot answer that with conviction then maybe you have answered the question.
For the upmove to continue this week we would like to see 11621 broken early in the week pushing towards 11791 and 11868 with strong momentum. This could then push the DAX back above 12015 again.
If we see continued issues with Greece and 11621 remains a strong resistance level then we could see the DAX in a bit of a Free Fall again reaching 11373 before settling near the area between 11292 – 57. If the move lower has strong momentum then the levels we will be watching closely will be 11163, 11080 and 10941 and finally 10869.
US
S&P – 2109 ( – 18 or – 0.85% )
After an early move lower the S&P moved sideways closing below the key level of 2112.
The two important levels that the S&P needs to break this week are 2112 and 2126. If the upward momentum is strong we could see 2137 broken with a long up bar reaching 2148.
If the S&P finds 2112 hard to break early then a long down bar move could see 2101 very quickly. Once this occurs we could see 2085 and 2076 once again. if the downside moves become aggressive then the area between 2050 – 46 could be seen.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7642 ( – 188 or – 2.40% )
The rise of the AUD was short lived as we saw continued downside pressure pushing it all the way down past 7700 closing only 7 points above our level of 7635 which completes the range.
For the upmove to restart we would like to see strong support at 7635 before moving towards 7718 again. If the upward momentum maintains then 7778 could be seen.
For the longer term downside move to continue a strong break past 7635 could see the AUD in a bit of a FREE FALL reaching 7498 very quickly. If the move is strong then it extend towards 7407.
EUR.USD – 10992 ( – 18 or – 0.16% )
The EUR took an early leg down but was then bought back fairly quickly to find itself just below 110 again to finish slightly lower for the week. Therefore our comments remain the same:
For the EUR to move back higher we really need to see a V shared reversal breaking back above 11038 before pushing towards 11166. Once this occurs we could see another attempt at reaching 11315 and possibly 11396.
If that’s it for now on the upside for the EUR then another strong down-bar break past the area between 10941 – 10899 could start an aggressive move towards 10780 and possibly extending to 10590.
GBP.USD – 15286 ( – 195 or – 1.26% )
Another move lower by the GBP reaching a low of 15236 which completed the range down to 13238.
For the GBP to restart higher we would like to see the area between 15238 – 09 before a rebound towards 15366 is achieved. Once this occurs then our key FICM level of 15448 comes back into play. This will then need to be broken with a strong long up bar break and close before we see 15644 again.
For the down move to really start we would need to see the Key FICM level of 15209 broken early in the week with a long down bar. Then it will need to become a solid level of resistance pushing the pair down past 15140 and a strong push is needed before 14950 is seen.
USD.JPY – 12414 ( + 259 or + 2.13% )
…….and ‘POP” USDJPY closed only 11 points higher than our level of 12403 completing the range.
For the USD to continue its rally we need to see 12403 hold as a strong level of support before we see a full extension towards 12649. Once this level is reached we will discuss the next levels within our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
Now that the range has been met for this pair if the JPY gains some strength then we would need to see a strong long down bar break and close through 12403 before an attempt at 12275 is made. If the downward momentum is strong then we will be watching 12225 and 12184 very closely.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1190 ( – 16 or – 1.33% )
Gold made another move lower last week as the rumor mill re US Interest rates continued in the media.
For the upward move to restart GOLD needs to break through 1192 early in the week reaching 1208. Once this occurs then a break past 1216 could see 1226 again.
For the down move to restart and continue a strong long down bar through the area between 1178 – 80 could see GOLD near the 1167 and finally 1161 which would complete the range.
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