This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
IINDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8580 (+64 or +0.75%)
ASX200 is trending upward, gaining 64 points this week — showing steady strength with potential for further momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change (May)
Thu 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8601. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8623, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8645 and potentially 8687.
If we cannot close above 8559, we could see a move back to test 8537 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8515, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8473.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 23432 (-899 or -3.69%)
DAX30 dropped 899 points — a sharp move lower, signaling strong downside pressure and potential for further weakness.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jun)
Thu 04:00 – EUR ECB Guindos Speech
Fri 17:15 – EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 23491. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 23549, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 23608 and potentially 23724.
If we cannot close above 23373, we could see a move back to test 23315 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 23256, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23140.
US
S&P 500 – 5982 (-23 or -0.38%)
US500 slipped slightly — a modest pullback, showing mild weakness but no strong directional shift yet.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 00:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (May/31)
Fri 22:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5997. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6012, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6027 and potentially 6057.
If we cannot close above 5967, we could see a move back to test 5952 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5937, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5907.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6490 (-27 or -0.41%)
AUD/USD edged lower — a small dip that signals mild weakness, but no significant shift in trend yet.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change (May)
Thu 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate (May)
Tue 22:30 – USD Retail Sales YoY (May)
Thu 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thu 04:30 – USD Fed Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6506. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6522, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6538 and potentially 6570.
If we cannot close above 6474, we could see a move back to test 6458 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6442, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6410.
EUR/USD – 1.1532 (+111 or +0.97%)
EUR/USD surged higher — a strong bullish move, signaling renewed euro strength and potential continuation if momentum holds.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jun)
Thu 04:00 – EUR ECB Guindos Speech
Fri 17:15 – EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Tue 22:30 – USD Retail Sales YoY (May)
Thu 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thu 04:30 – USD Fed Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1560. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1587, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1615 and potentially 1.1676.
If we cannot close above 1.1504, we could see a move back to test 1.1476 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1449, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1388.
GBP/USD – 1.3547 (-5 or -0.04%)
GBP/USD held steady — a flat week with no real direction, suggesting consolidation or indecision in the current trend.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 16:00 – GBP Inflation Rate YoY (May)
Thu 21:00 – GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision
Fri 16:00 – GBP Retail Sales YoY (May)
Tue 22:30 – USD Retail Sales YoY (May)
Thu 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thu 04:30 – USD Fed Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3580. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3613, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3647 and potentially 1.3716.
If we cannot close above 1.3514, we could see a move back to test 1.3481 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3448, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3379.
USD/JPY – 144.46 (-16 or -0.11%)
USD/JPY edged slightly lower — a minor dip, showing low momentum and tight consolidation within recent ranges.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 13:00 – JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision
Wed 09:50 – JPY Balance of Trade (May)
Fri 09:30 – JPY Inflation Rate YoY (May)
Tue 22:30 – USD Retail Sales YoY (May)
Thu 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thu 04:30 – USD Fed Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 144.82. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 145.18, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 145.54 and potentially 146.27.
If we cannot close above 144.10, we could see a move back to test 143.74 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 143.38, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 142.65.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 3434 (+111 or +3.34%)
Gold surged 111 points — a strong bullish move, breaking higher with momentum and signaling potential continuation if buyers stay in control.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 3442. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3449, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3456 and potentially 3477.
If we cannot close above 3425, we could see a move back to test 3417 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3410, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3389.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 105295 (-444 or -0.42%)
Bitcoin dipped slightly — a minor pullback after recent gains, showing consolidation with no clear breakout yet.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 105558. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 105821, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 106084 and potentially 106611.
If we cannot close above 105032, we could see a move back to test 104769 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 104506, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 103979.
