This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up to the minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7341 (+47 or +0.64%)
A strong close on Friday saw the ASX break out of weekly consolidation to post a marginal gain. We will be discussing this in our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 11:30 – RBA Meeting Minutes
For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX hold above 7272. Should this occur, a move to 7400 should be expected; and if momentum is strong we cannot rule out moves to 7500.
Failure to close above 7272 means a potential move back into 7202. 7091 is the next support level down if 6969 doesn’t hold. If downside momentum is really strong then we could see a sharp move to 6850.
EUROPE
DAX – 15485 (+47 or +0.3%)
The DAX ended the week higher but it’s a real grind at the moment – will that continue to be the theme this week?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 16:00 – CPI M/m and Y/y
Fri 16:00 – PPI M/m and Y/y
For the DAX to continue its move higher we would like to see it hold above 15585. Should this occur then 15782 is the next technical level ahead. If upside momentum really takes hold then 16000 cannot be ruled out.
To the downside, should 15585 not be able to hold, we will look for a move into support at 15500. A strong break and close below this handle and 15050 is the next level down. If downside pressure mounts then 14990 cannot be ruled out.
US
S&P 500 – 4244 (+15 or +0.35%)
The SPX posted a new high – just – before pausing at a key technical level. We will be discussing what is next in our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 22:30 – Core Retail Sales and Core PPI
Weds 22:30 – Building Permits
Weds 22:30- Core CPI M/m & Y/y
Thurs 22:30 – Fed Interest Rate Decision and FOMC Press Conference
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 4250. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 4300; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out moves to 4435 and 4500.
If we cannot close above 4250, we could see this market move back down to 4200. A break of this level, however, may result in a quick move down to 4155; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move back down to 4117.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7702 (-39 or -0.5%)
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 11:30 – RBA Meeting Minutes
Another flat week for the Aussie Dollar…
For a move higher this week, we would like to see it close above 0.7729. We will then be targeting a move back into 0.7823. If we see a strong break and close above this level then we can’t rule out a move to 0.7997.
If this market cannot close above 0.7729, we could see a move back down into 0.7660 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 0.7562, however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 0.7500.
EUR/USD – 1.2107 (-62 or -0.51%)
A sell-off on Friday and the Euro suddenly looks like it could be at a turning point – we will be discussing this in our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.2113. Should this occur we could see a move into 1.2170. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.2222; and if momentum is very strong, 1.2353 cannot be ruled out.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.2113, we could see a move back down into 1.2052 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.2000, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1925.
GBP/USD – 1.4105 (-51 or -0.36%)
Another range-bound week for the Cable – is a big breakout on the cards this week? We will be discussing this in our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 16:00 – Unemployment Rate
Weds 16:00 – CPI Y/y and M/m
Fri 16:00 – Retails Sales Y/y and M/m
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.4125, before a break higher through 1.4250. If this market can see a strong close above this level we may then see a strong push into 1.4375.
Should we fail to close above 1.4125, we will look for a move down to 1.4000. A break below this level however could see Cable further depreciate to 1.3865 by the week’s end and if momentum is very weak we cannot rule out a move to 1.3755.
USD/JPY – 109.68 (+16 or +0.15%)
Like other major’s the Dollar Yen also spent the week ranging – will the FOMC meet spark direction? We will be discussing this further in our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 22:30 – Core Retail Sales and Core PPI
Weds 22:30 – Building Permits
Weds 22:30- Core PPI M/m & Y/y
Thurs 22:30 – Fed Interest Rate Decision and FOMC Press Conference
For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 109.68. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 109.94, and if momentum is very strong we could see a move higher into 110.38 and potentially 111.
If we cannot hold above 109.68, we could see a move back to test 109.21 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 108.60, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 107.81.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1875 (-16 or -0.85%)
A second weekly loss in a row suggests the bulls are in for a test for the trend higher to continue. We will discuss this throughout the week in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Weds 22:30- Core PPI M/m & Y/y
Thurs 22:30 – Fed Interest Rate Decision and FOMC Press Conference
For a continued move higher we need to see this market close above 1905. Should this occur we will move into 1930; and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 1960. If momentum is really strong then 1975 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot close above 1905, we will look for a move back down to 1875. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1850, and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a move to 1814.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 37124 (+930 or +2.57%)
A midweek downside break was quickly recovered as Bitcoin continues to trade within a wide range.
For a move higher we must now see this market hold above 35000. Should this occur we could see a move into 40000 before retesting 42000. If upside momentum is really strong then we can’t rule out 50000.
Failure to hold at 35000 could see a move down to the lows around 30000. If selling pressure takes control then we could see a move down to 25700. A close below this level and 19000 can’t be ruled out.
