This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7306 (+251 or +3.56%)
The ASX has been range bound for the past 12 months with the middle mean being 7018.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Thur 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate
For a move higher, we would like to see the ASX close above 7337. Should this occur, a move above 7376 should be expected, and if momentum is strong, we cannot rule out moves to 7443 and 7490.
Failure to close above 7337 means a potential move into 7222. 7208 is the next support level down if 7108 doesn’t hold. If downside momentum is really strong then we could see another leg down into 7017.
EUROPE
DAX (40) – 16057 (+458 or +2.94%)
The DAX rose fast at the end of the last week testing the lower high formation. Will the market make it above the all time highs?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 19:00 – EUR CPI
For the DAX to move higher, we would like to see it close above 16211. Should this occur, then 16306 is the next level ahead. If upside momentum is strong, then 16487 and 16675 cannot be ruled out.
To the downside, should we not see it hold above 16211, we will look for a move into support at 15886. A strong break and close below this handle and 15567 is the next level down. If downside pressure mounts, then 15408 cannot be ruled out.
US
S&P 500 – 4504 (+106 or +2.41%)
The SPX continued its weekly momentum closing at the highs, will this continue for another week?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 22:30 – USD Retail Sales
Wed 22:30 – USD Building Permits
Thur 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims
For a move higher, we would like to see the S&P hold above 4498. Should this occur, we will look for a move through 4522. And if momentum is strong, we cannot rule out moves to 4575 and 4636.
If we cannot hold above 4498, we could see this market move down into 4416. A break of this level, however, may result in a quick move down to 4374. And if momentum to the downside remains strong, we may see a fast move back down to 4308.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6832 (+148 or +2.21%)
After a busy week of high volatility news releases, AUDUSD saw a breakout to the upside. Will this set the direction for the following week?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Thur 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate
Thur 11:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move higher this week, we would like to see it hold above 0.6792. We will then be targeting a move through 0.6859. If we see a strong break and close above this level, then we can’t rule out a move to 0.6899. Should momentum to the upside be really strong, then 0.6925 could be targeted.
If this market cannot hold above 0.6792, we could see a move down to 0.6757. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 0.6729, however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 0.6696.
EUR/USD – 1.1227 (+263 or +2.4%)
EURUSD broke above the yearly resistance and psychological level of 1.1
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 19:00 – EUR CPI
Thur 11:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move higher, we would like to see the Euro close above 1.1227. Should this occur, we should see a move above 1.1302. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.1353 and 1.1468.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.1227, we will see a move into 1.1155. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1091, however, any weakness below this level could see a move into 1.0989.
GBP/USD – 1.3090 (+265 or +2.07%)
GBPUSD remains the strongest against the USDollar with continued momentum to the upside.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 16:00 – GBP Inflation Rate
Fri 16:00 – GBP Retail sales
Thur 11:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.3092 before a break higher into 1.3163. If this market can see a strong close above this level, we may then see a strong pushback into 1.3214. If upside momentum is really strong, then a move back into 1.3316 can’t be ruled out.
Should we fail to hold above 1.3092, we will look for a move down to 1.3028. A break below this level, however, could see Cable further depreciate to 1.2970 by the week’s end. And if momentum is very weak, we cannot rule out a move to 1.2868.
USD/JPY – 138.55 (-397 or -2.79%)
USDJPY has seen the biggest weekly drop since the start of 2023. Will the USD find support and continue its upward trend?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thur 09:50 – JPY Balance of Trade
Fri 09:30 – JPY Inflation Rate YoY
Thur 11:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 139.16. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 140.02, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 141.28 and potentially 142.84.
If we cannot close above 139.16, we could see a move back to test 138.10 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 137.65, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 135.43.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1952 (+27 or +1.4%)
GOLD has found strength in the recent USDollar weakness.
For a move higher, we need to see this market close above 1950. Should this occur we could see a move into 1961; and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 1975. If momentum is strong, then 1982 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot close above 1950, we can see a move down to 1941. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1933; and if momentum is very strong to the downside, we could see a move to 1918.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 30287 (+204 or +0.68%)
Bitcoin has been stuck in a small range fighting to break out. Which team will win? A drop from here could see the Psychological level of $20,000.
For a move higher, we must now see this market close above 32000. Should this occur, we could see a move into 33000 before retesting 33500. If the upside momentum is really strong, then we can’t rule out 35000.
Failure to close above 30000 could see a move into 29000. If selling pressure takes control, then we could see a move down to 28000. A close below this level and 25000 can’t be ruled out. 20000 is the more psychological handle below that.
