The possibility of increased Volatility caused by a full week of market news
This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7337 (+31 or +0.42%)
The ASX is sitting at the top of its current range, will market the momentum continue?.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI
Thur 11:30 – AUD Inflation Rate
For a move higher, we would like to see the ASX close above 7389. Should this occur, a move above 7425 should be expected, and if momentum is strong, we cannot rule out moves to 7522 and 7595.
Failure to close above 7291 means a potential move into 7269. 7256 is the next support level down if 7221 doesn’t hold. If downside momentum is really strong then we could see another leg down into 7196.
EUROPE
DAX (40) – 16159 (+102 or +0.64% )
The Dax has held its current level for the whole week, could this be a support base?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 17:30 – EUR Manufacturing PMI
Fri 18:00 – EUR CPI
Fri 18:00 – EUR Inflation Rate
For the DAX to move higher, we would like to see it close above 16156. Should this occur, then 16306 is the next level ahead. If upside momentum is strong, then 16487 and 16675 cannot be ruled out.
To the downside, should we not see it hold above 16211, we will look for a move into support at 15886. A strong break and close below this handle and 15567 is the next level down. If downside pressure mounts, then 15408 cannot be ruled out.
US
S&P 500 – 4538 (+34 or +0.75%)
The SPX has made an incredible move this year, climbing 30% from the lows at 3486.
Will this momentum of US equities continue to all time highs?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thur 00:00 – USD New home Sales
Thur 00:00 – USD Interest rate Decision
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
Thur 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
For a move higher, we would like to see the S&P hold above 4518. Should this occur, we will look for a move through 4614. And if momentum is strong, we cannot rule out moves to 4657 and 4700.
If we cannot hold above 4518, we could see this market move down into 4480 A break of this level, however, may result in a quick move down to 4412. And if momentum to the downside remains strong, we may see a fast move back down to 4339.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6727 (-105 or -1.54%)
AUDUSD has formed an interesting resistance level with a double top formation, this comes with a busy week of AUD and USD news that could cause high volatility at these resistance levels.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI
Wed 11:30 – AUD Inflation Rate
Thur 00:00 – USD New home Sales
Thur 00:00 – USD Interest rate Decision
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
Thur 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
For a move higher this week, we would like to see it hold above 0.6804. We will then be targeting a move through 0.6860. If we see a strong break and close above this level, then we can’t rule out a move to 0.6900. Should momentum to the upside be really strong, then 0.6955 could be targeted.
If this market cannot hold above 0.6763, we could see a move down to 0.6696. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 0.6686, however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 0.6639.
EUR/USD – 1.1129 (-98 or -0.87%)
EURUSD is holding above the psychological level of 1.1 but faces a high volatility week of news. Will the bulls be able to hold the 1.1 line throughout this busy week?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 17:30 – EUR Manufacturing PMI
Fri 18:00 – EUR CPI
Fri 18:00 – EUR Inflation Rate
Thur 00:00 – USD New home Sales
Thur 00:00 – USD Interest rate Decision
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
Thur 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
For a move higher, we would like to see the Euro close above 1.1158. Should this occur, we should see a move above 1.1192. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.1278 and 1.1308.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.1158, we will see a move into 1.1062. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1018, however, any weakness below this level could see a move into 1.1.
GBP/USD – 1.2862 (-228 or -1.74%)
GBPUSD remains the strongest against the USDollar with continued momentum to the upside.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thur 00:00 – USD New home Sales
Thur 00:00 – USD Interest rate Decision
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
Thur 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.2860 before a break higher into 1.2926. If this market can see a strong close above this level, we may then see a strong pushback into 1.3029. If upside momentum is really strong, then a move back into 1.3136 can’t be ruled out.
Should we fail to hold above 1.2860, we will look for a move down to 1.2724. A break below this level, however, could see Cable further depreciate to 1.2659 by the week’s end. And if momentum is very weak, we cannot rule out a move to 1.2579.
USD/JPY – 141.59 (+304 or +2.19%)
After a sharp drop, USDJPY has regained nearly all of its ground. This strength could be challenged by the busy News week.USDJPY has seen the biggest weekly drop since the start of 2023. Will the USD find support and continue its upward trend?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 09:30 – JPY BOJ Interest Rate Decision
Thur 00:00 – USD New home Sales
Thur 00:00 – USD Interest rate Decision
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
Thur 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 141.22. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 142.80, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 144.79 and potentially 146.09.
If we cannot close above 141.22, we could see a move back to test 139.76 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 139.18, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 138.16.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1962 (+10 or +0.51%)
GOLD has found strength in the recent USDollar weakness, will the busy week of USD news cause the same move this week?
For a move higher, we need to see this market close above 1960. Should this occur we could see a move into 1981; and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 1988. If momentum is strong, then 2005 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot close above 1960, we can see a move down to 1944. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1926 and if momentum is very strong to the downside, we could see a move to 1892.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 29894 (-393 or -1.3%)
Bitcoin hit the highs of $31,890 and has been unable to breakthrough with the average price now moving under $30,000.
For a move higher, we must now see this market close above 31890. Should this occur, we could see a move into 32000 before retesting 33000. If the upside momentum is really strong, then we can’t rule out 34500.
Failure to close above 30000 could see a move into 29000. If selling pressure takes control, then we could see a move down to 28000. A close below this level and 25000 can’t be ruled out. 20000 is the more psychological handle below that.
