INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 6214 ( +113 or +1.85% )
The ASX continues to rally as it holds above key levels. We will be discussing the impact of this in our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6206 followed by a push into 6250. Should this occur we will look for a move into 6266, and if momentum to the upside remains strong we cannot rule out a move to 6345 and 6434.
If the ASX cannot hold above 6206, we will look for a move back down to 6140 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6000, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 5980.
EUROPE
DAX – 12900 ( -158 or -1.21% )
The DAX managed to recover some losses on Friday yet still finished the week lower.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 00:05 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Mon 23:45 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Fri 18:30 – German Flash Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI
For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX close above 12921. Should this occur, we will look for a strong move into 13333, and if momentum remains strong a push back higher into 13520.
If the DAX fails to close above 12921, we may see a move back down into the key level of 12714. A close below this level is likely to see a retest of 12566; however if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a fast and sharp move down to 12266.
US
SP500 – 3472 ( -12 or -0.34% )
The S&P finished the week relatively flat and this week is again setting up to be a volatile week. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 23:00 – FED Chair Powell Speaks
Sat 00:45 – Flash Manufacturing PMI
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 3498. Should this occur, we will look for a move higher into 3560. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3620; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 3650.
If we cannot close above 3498, we could see this market move lower into 3395. A break of this level however may result in a quick move down to 3300; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 3274 and 3210.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7077 ( -162 or -2.24% )
The Aussie Dollar continues its grind lower as the market remains under pressure below some big resistance levels.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.7113. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7197, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7282 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot hold above 0.7113, we will look for the AUD to 0.7014. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6934; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.6873.
EUR/USD – 1.1714 ( -116 or -0.98% )
The EURO was also lower last week but is clearly trying to hold its ground. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 00:05 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Mon 23:45 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Fri 19:00 – Euro Area Flash Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1738. Should this occur we could see a retest of 1.1834. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.1925; and if momentum is very strong, 1.2042 cannot be ruled out.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.1738, we could see a fast move down into 1.1678 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1613, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1553.
GBP/USD – 1.2909 ( -136 or -1.04% )
Like the EURO, Cable remains under pressure but is now in a tight narrow range.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 17:00 – CPI (annual)
Thu 20:25 – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
Fri 19:30 – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI
For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.3035, followed by a retest into 1.3161 before a pause. If however momentum is very strong we may see a strong push into 1.3277.
Should we fail to close above 1.3035, we could see a move back down to 1.2867. A break below this level however could see Cable further depreciate to 1.2720 by the week’s end.
USD/JPY – 105.38 ( -23 or -0.22% )
The $/Yen was flat last week and so our levels this week remain unchanged.
For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 105.50. Should this occur we will look for a push into 106.52, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move higher to 106.92.
If we cannot close above 105.50, we could see another move back down into 104.97. A break below this level may result in further downside to 104.02; and any further breaks to the downside may trigger a bigger move into 103.21.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1898 ( -32 or -1.66% )
GOLD was also relatively flat and we are on alert for a breakout this week.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market close above 1920. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1938 and 1950. A break above this level sets Gold up for retests of 2012 and 2033.
If Gold cannot close above 1920, we will look for a move back down to 1900. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1871; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a sharp move down to 1850.
