This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
IINDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8852 (-102 or -1.14%)
ASX slipped -1.14% this week, showing renewed bearish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Sep)
Tue 11:30 – AUD NAB Business Confidence (Aug)
Fri 12:00 – AUD RBA Jones Speech
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8874. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8896, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8918 and potentially 8962.
If we cannot close above 8830, we could see a move back to test 8808 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8786, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8742.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 23680 (-316 or -1.32%)
DAX fell -1.32%, signaling clear downside pressure.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 16:00 – EUR Balance of Trade (Jul)
Thu 22:15 – EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision
Thu 22:45 – EUR ECB Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 23739. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 23798, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 23856 and potentially 23976.
If we cannot close above 23621, we could see a move back to test 23562 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 23504, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23384.
US
S&P 500 – 6489 (+12 or +0.19%)
SPX gained +0.19%, maintaining a modest bullish trend.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 00:00 – USD Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision
Thu 22:30 – USD CPI (Aug)
Thu 22:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Aug)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6505. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6521, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6537 and potentially 6569.
If we cannot close above 6473, we could see a move back to test 6457 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6441, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6409.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6548 (+5 or +0.08%)
AUDUSD edged up +0.08%, holding steady with slight bullish bias.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Sep)
Tue 11:30 – AUD NAB Business Confidence (Aug)
Fri 12:00 – AUD RBA Jones Speech
Wed 00:00 – USD Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision
Thu 22:30 – USD CPI (Aug)
Thu 22:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Aug)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6564. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6578, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6593 and potentially 0.6629.
If we cannot close above 0.6532, we could see a move back to test 0.6517 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6501, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6470.
EUR/USD – 1.1708 (+19 or +0.16%)
EURUSD rose +0.16%, extending gradual bullish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 16:00 – EUR Balance of Trade (Jul)
Thu 22:15 – EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision
Thu 22:45 – EUR ECB Press Conference
Wed 00:00 – USD Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision
Thu 22:30 – USD CPI (Aug)
Thu 22:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Aug)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1737. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1766, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1795 and potentially 1.1855.
If we cannot close above 1.1679, we could see a move back to test 1.1650 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1621, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1561.
GBP/USD – 1.3488 (-15 or -0.11%)
GBPUSD dipped -0.11%, softening slightly.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 09:01 – GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Aug)
Fri 16:00 – GBP GDP MoM (Jul)
Fri 16:00 – GBP Goods Trade Balance (Jul)
Wed 00:00 – USD Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision
Thu 22:30 – USD CPI (Aug)
Thu 22:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Aug)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3522. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3555, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3588 and potentially 1.3657.
If we cannot close above 1.3454, we could see a move back to test 1.3421 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3388, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3319.
USD/JPY – 148.29 (+119 or +0.81%)
USDJPY advanced +0.81%, showing strong upside momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:50 – JPY Current Account (Jul)
Mon 09:50 – JPY GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
Mon 09:50 – JPY GDP Growth Annualized (Q2)
Wed 00:00 – USD Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision
Thu 22:30 – USD CPI (Aug)
Thu 22:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Aug)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 148.66. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 149.03, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 149.40 and potentially 150.15.
If we cannot close above 147.92, we could see a move back to test 147.55 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 147.18, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 146.43.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 3592 (+142 or +4.12%)
Gold surged +4.12%, reflecting strong bullish demand.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 3601. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3610, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3619 and potentially 3637.
If we cannot close above 3583, we could see a move back to test 3574 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3565, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3547.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 111187 (+2635 or +2.43%)
Bitcoin climbed +2.43%, extending bullish momentum strongly higher.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 111465. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 111743, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 112021 and potentially 112626.
If we cannot close above 110909, we could see a move back to test 110631 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 110353, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 109748.
