This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7929(-109 or -1.36%)
The AU200 chart is trending downwards with a significant move from 8036 to 7927 in just one week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 09:00 – Judo Bank Composite PMI (Jul)
Wed 09:00 – Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
Wed 09:00 – Judo Bank Services PMI (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7948. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7966, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7985 and potentially 8023.
If we cannot close above 7911, we could see a move back to test 7893 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7874, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7836.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 18220 (-506 or -2.7%)
The DAX30 chart shows a significant downtrend, dropping 506 points this week, indicating a notable bearish movement in market sentiment.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 15:00 – PPI MoM (Jun)
Mon 15:00 – PPI YoY (Jun)
Tue 22:30 – Unemployment Rate (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 18266. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 18276, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 18286 and potentially 18296.
If we cannot close above 18215, we could see a move back to test 18205 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 18195, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 18185.
US
S&P 500 – 5532 (-95 or -1.69%)
The US500 has seen a notable decline from 5627 to 5532 this week, indicating a significant bearish trend in prices.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 22:30 – Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun)
Tue 01:30 – 3-Month Bill Auction
Tue 01:30 – 6-Month Bill Auction
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5545. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5560, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5577 and potentially 5639.
If we cannot close above 5520, we could see a move back to test 5506 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5489, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5466.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6700 (-70 or -1.03%)
The AUDUSD chart is showing a weak trend, with a notable move lower from 0.6770 to 0.6700 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 09:00 – Judo Bank Composite PMI (Jul)
Wed 09:00 – Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
Wed 09:00 – Judo Bank Services PMI (Jul)
Mon 22:30 – Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun)
Tue 01:30 – 3-Month Bill Auction
Tue 01:30 – 6-Month Bill Auction
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6717. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6734, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6748 and potentially 0.6775.
If we cannot close above 0.6693, we could see a move back to test 0.6676 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6661, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6625.
EUR/USD – 1.0898 (+13 or +0.12%)
The EURUSD chart is moderately bullish, with a slight move up from 1.0885 to 1.0898 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 15:00 – PPI MoM (Jun)
Mon 15:00 – PPI YoY (Jun)
Tue 22:30 – Unemployment Rate (May)
Mon 22:30 – Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun)
Tue 01:30 – 3-Month Bill Auction
Tue 01:30 – 6-Month Bill Auction
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0926. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0954, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0982 and potentially 1.1048.
If we cannot close above 1.0870, we could see a move back to test 1.0842 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0814, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0768.
GBP/USD – 1.2934 (-32 or -0.25%)
The GBPUSD chart is moderately weak with a slight decline from 1.2966 to 1.2934 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 18:30 – S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
Tue 18:30 – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
Tue 18:30 – S&P Global Composite PMI (Jul)
Mon 22:30 – Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun)
Tue 01:30 – 3-Month Bill Auction
Tue 01:30 – 6-Month Bill Auction
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2965. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2992, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3020 and potentially 1.3075.
If we cannot close above 1.2903, we could see a move back to test 1.2876 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2857, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2818.
USD/JPY – 157.29 (-102 or -0.64%)
The USDJPY is weakening with a notable move from 158.31 to 157.29 this week, suggesting bearish momentum in the chart.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 10:30 – Jibun Bank Composite PMI (Jul)
Wed 10:30 – Jibun Bank Services PMI (Jul)
Wed 10:30 – Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
Mon 22:30 – Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun)
Tue 01:30 – 3-Month Bill Auction
Tue 01:30 – 6-Month Bill Auction
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 157.435. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 157.72, and potentially 158.105 and 158.965.
If we cannot close above 156.945, we could see a move back to test 156.605 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 156.22, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 155.36.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2410 (+2 or +0.08%)
The price of GOLD has edged slightly higher from 2408 to 2410, showing a minor bullish trend this week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see GOLD close above 2415. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2422, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2428 and potentially 2438.
If we cannot close above 2405, we could see a move back to test 2400 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2398, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2388.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 67892 (+7225 or +11.91%)
Bitcoin surged significantly from 60667 to 67892 this week, indicating a strong bullish trend with a substantial upward move.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 69550. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 70214, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 70877 and potentially 72203.
If we cannot close above 66234, we could see a move back to test 65570 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 64907, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 63681.
