This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIAAUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8358 (+21 or +0.25%)
AU200 edges higher with a modest 21-point gain — a steady uptrend, but momentum remains cautious for now.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – AUD Monthly CPI Indicator (Apr)
Fri 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales MoM (Apr)
Mon 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8379. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8399, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8420 and potentially 8457.
If we cannot close above 8337, we could see a move back to test 8317 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8296, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8253.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 23815 (+47 or +0.2%)
DE30 shows minimal upside momentum with a 47-point gain — trend remains weak unless a stronger breakout follows.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 16:45 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (May)
Wed 17:55 – EUR Unemployment Rate (May)
Fri 19:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Apr)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 23,875. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 23,934, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 23,993 and potentially 24,112.
If we cannot close above 23,755, we could see a move back to test 23,696 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 23,636, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23,358.
US
S&P 500 – 5850 (-65 or -1.1%)
US500 slips 65 points — a weak pullback suggesting short-term pressure. Bulls need to reclaim ground quickly.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 04:40 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Apr)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5,865. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5,879, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5,894 and potentially 5,923.
If we cannot close above 5,835, we could see a move back to test 5,820 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5,806, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5,767.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6498 (+82 or +1.28%)
AUD/USD posts a strong 82-pip rally — solid bullish momentum returning as buyers push toward key resistance.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – AUD Monthly CPI Indicator (Apr)
Fri 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales MoM (Apr)
Mon 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
Mon 04:40 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Apr)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6514. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6531, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6547 and potentially 0.6589.
If we cannot close above 0.6482, we could see a move back to test 0.6465 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6449, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6410.
EUR/USD – 1.1181 (-59 or -0.52%)
EUR/USD surges nearly 200 pips — strong bullish breakout, momentum accelerating toward multi-week highs.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 16:45 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (May)
Wed 17:55 – EUR Unemployment Rate (May)
Fri 19:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Apr)
Mon 04:40 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Apr)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1404. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1432, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1460 and potentially 1.1518.
If we cannot close above 1.1348, we could see a move back to test 1.1320 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1292, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1240.
GBP/USD – 1.3539 (+240 or +1.8%)
GBP/USD rallies over 240 pips — strong bullish momentum driving a clear breakout to new short-term highs.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 16:00 – GBP Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (May)
Fri 16:00 – GBP Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (May)
Mon 18:30 – GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
Mon 04:40 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Apr)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3572. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3606, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3639 and potentially 1.3708.
If we cannot close above 1.3506, we could see a move back to test 1.3472 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3439, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3369.
USD/JPY – 142.79 (-238 or -1.64%)
USD/JPY drops over 200 pips — strong bearish momentum suggests renewed pressure on key support levels.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 15:00 – JPY Consumer Confidence (May)
Fri 09:30 – JPY Unemployment Rate (Apr)
Fri 09:50 – JPY Industrial Production MoM (Apr)
Mon 04:40 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Apr)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 143.14. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 143.50, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 143.85 and potentially 144.57.
If we cannot close above 142.44, we could see a move back to test 142.08 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 141.73, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 140.31.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 3337 (+117 or +3.63%)
Gold surges 117 points — strong bullish breakout with momentum accelerating toward fresh highs.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 3,345. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3,354, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3,362 and potentially 3,379.
If we cannot close above 3,329, we could see a move back to test 3,320 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3,312, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3,295.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 108813 (+3887 or +3.7%)
Bitcoin jumps over 3,800 points — strong bullish continuation as momentum builds above the 108K mark.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 109,585. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 110,357, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 111,129 and potentially 112,373.
If we cannot close above 108,041, we could see a move back to test 107,269 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 106,497, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 105,253.
