This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up to the minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7610 (+46 or +0.61%)
The ASX continues its recent bullish momentum as it rockets to new all-time highs – how long can it keep it up for?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 11:30 – RBA Meeting Minutes
Thurs 11:30 – Employment Change
For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX hold above 7600. Should this occur, a move into 7730 could be expected; and if momentum is strong we cannot rule out moves to 7750 and 7800.
Failure to hold above 7600 means a potential move back into 7500. 7400 is the next support level down if 7272 doesn’t hold. If downside momentum is really strong then we could see a sharp move to 7202.
EUROPE
DAX – 16000 (+215 or +1.36%)
The DAX has now posted 10 green days in a row as it finally managed to break through its recent all-time highs.
For the DAX to continue its move higher we would like to see it close above 16000. Should this occur then 16157 is the next level ahead. If upside momentum is strong then 16307 cannot be ruled out.
To the downside, should we not see it hold above 16000, we will look for a move into support at 15800. A strong break and close below this handle and 15500 is the next level down. If downside pressure mounts then 15345 cannot be ruled out.
US
S&P 500 – 4465 (+26 or +0.59%)
Another weekly close at new highs for the SPX as the bull run goes from strength to strength.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 22:30 – Retail Sales
Weds 22:30 – Building Permits
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 4450. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 4500; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out moves to 4531 and 4600.
If we cannot hold above 4450, we could see this market move down into 4425. A break of this level however may result in a quick move down to 4375; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move back down to 4300.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7370 (+17 or +0.23%)
Another choppy week for the Aussie Dollar as it closes just marginally higher – our levels remain unchanged.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 11:30 – RBA Meeting Minutes
Thurs 11:30 – Employment Change
For a move higher this week, we would like to see it close above 0.7423. We will then be targeting a move back into 0.7500 where we may see a pause. If we see a strong break and close above this level then we can’t rule out a move to 0.7560.
If this market cannot close above 0.7423, we could see a move back down into 0.7343. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 0.7250, however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 0.7065.
EUR/USD – 1.1795 (+35 or +0.3%)
A strong Friday saw the EURO close slightly higher for the week.
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1833. Should this occur we could see a move into 1.1925 before a pause. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.2000; and if momentum is very strong, 1.2052 cannot be ruled out.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.1833, we could see a move into 1.1738. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1615, however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1500.
GBP/USD – 1.3871 (-2 or -0.01%)
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 16:00 – Core CPI M/m
Another very flat week for the Cable and our levels are unchanged.
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold 1.3865 before a break higher through 1.4000. If this market can see a strong close above this level we may then see a strong push back into 1.4125.
Should we fail to hold above 1.3865, we will look for a move down to 1.3755. A break below this level however could see Cable further depreciate to 1.3666 by the week’s end and if momentum is very weak we cannot rule out a move to 1.3620.
USD/JPY – 109.59 (-63 or -0.57%)
A weak Friday for the USD saw this pair erase all its prior gains for the week to end lower – we will discuss this further inside our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 22:30 – Retail Sales
Weds 22:30 – Building Permits
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market hold above 109.94. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 110.38, and if upside momentum is strong we could see a move higher into 111 and potentially 111.70.
If we cannot hold above 109.94, we could see a move back to test 109.68 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 109.21, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 107.81.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1779 (+16 or +0.91%)
Gold fully faded Monday’s flash crash to end the week slightly higher – can the bulls pull off a full fade of the recent move lower next week?
For a continued move higher we need to see this market hold above 1756. Should this occur we need to see a move through 1786; and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 1800. If momentum is really strong then 1814 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot hold above 1756, we will look for a move back down to 1740. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1720, and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a move to 1678.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 46173 (-1423 or -2.99%)
A slight move to the downside after failing to break into the 50k handle last week.
For a move higher we must now see this market hold above 44000. Should this occur we could see a move into 47500 before retesting 50000. If upside momentum is really strong then we can’t rule out 55000.
Failure to hold above 44000 could see a move down to 40000. If selling pressure takes control then we could see a move down to 35000. A close below this level and 30000 can’t be ruled out.
