This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7792 (-201 or -2.51%)
The AU200 shows a significant downward trend, dropping 201 points this week, indicating a strong bearish movement.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Services PMI (Jul)
Tue 14:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Thu 11:30 – AUD NAB Business Confidence (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7811. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7831, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7850 and potentially 7889.
If we cannot close above 7772, we could see a move back to test 7753 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7733, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7694.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 17717 (-786 or -4.25%)
The DAX30 shows a significant downward trend, dropping 786 points this week, indicating a strong bearish movement.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 17:15 – EUR HCOB Services PMI (Jul)
Tue 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (Jun)
Wed 16:00 – EUR Balance of Trade (Jun)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 17761. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 17805, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 17849 and potentially 17938.
If we cannot close above 17673, we could see a move back to test 17629 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 17585, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 17496.
US
S&P 500 – 5302 (-177 or -3.23%)
The US500 shows a significant downward trend, dropping 177 points this week, indicating a strong and decisive bearish movement.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 23:45 – USD S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
Tue 00:00 – USD ISM Services PMI (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/03)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5315. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5328, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5340 and potentially 5358.
If we cannot close above 5289, we could see a move back to test 5276 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5264, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5246.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6510 (-46 or -0.7%)
The AUDUSD shows a downward trend, dropping 46 points this week, indicating a moderate bearish movement.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Services PMI (Jul)
Tue 14:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Thu 11:30 – AUD NAB Business Confidence (Jul)
Mon 23:45 – USD S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
Tue 00:00 – USD ISM Services PMI (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/03)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6526. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6533, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6538 and potentially 0.6591.
If we cannot close above 0.6493, we could see a move back to test 0.6486 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6481, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6428.
EUR/USD – 1.0906 (+53 or +0.49%)
The EURUSD shows a strong upward trend, rising 53 points this week, indicating a significant bullish movement.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 17:15 – EUR HCOB Services PMI (Jul)
Tue 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (Jun)
Wed 16:00 – EUR Balance of Trade (Jun)
Mon 23:45 – USD S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
Tue 00:00 – USD ISM Services PMI (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/03)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0937. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0968, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0978 and potentially 1.1031.
If we cannot close above 1.0881, we could see a move back to test 1.0851 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0830, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0781.
GBP/USD – 1.2791 (-78 or -0.61%)
The GBPUSD shows a notable downward trend, dropping 78 points this week, indicating a strong bearish movement.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:30 – GBP S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
Tue 09:01 – GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Jul)
Mon 23:45 – USD S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
Tue 00:00 – USD ISM Services PMI (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/03)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 12819. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 12847, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 12876 and potentially 12923.
If we cannot close above 12762, we could see a move back to test 12734 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 12705, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 12644.
USD/JPY – 146.06 (-812 or -5.27%)
The USDJPY shows a dramatic downward trend, plummeting 812 points this week, indicating a very strong bearish movement.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 23:45 – USD S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
Tue 00:00 – USD ISM Services PMI (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/03)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 14651. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 14703, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 14755 and potentially 14827.
If we cannot close above 14562, we could see a move back to test 14510 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 14458, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 14333.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2443 (+48 or +2%)
Gold is on a strong upward trend, gaining 48 points this week, highlighting a robust bullish movement.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2449. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2457, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2465 and potentially 2478.
If we cannot close above 2436, we could see a move back to test 2429 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2422, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2409.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 58394 (-9651 or -14.18%)
Bitcoin shows a dramatic bearish trend, dropping 9641 points this week, signaling a powerful downward movement.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 58698. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 59188, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 59679 and potentially 60792.
If we cannot close above 58061, we could see a move back to test 57571 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 57081, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 55968.
