This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7434 (+218 or +3.02%)
The ASX climbed 3% this past week reaching the upper levels of its current range.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7462. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7490, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7541 and potentially 7642.
If we cannot close above 7421, we could see a move back to test 7393 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7322, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7240.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 16763 (-52 or -0.31%)
After breaking into all time highs the DAX has shown a slight pause.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 21:00 – EUR CPI
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 17106. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 17532, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 17850 and potentially 18869.
If we cannot close above 16419, we could see a move back to test 16093 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 15775, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 14856.
US
S&P 500 – 4730 (+114 or +2.47%)
The SPX500 has continued its up trend closing above recent highs.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 00:30 – USD Building Permits
Thur 02:00 – USD Existing Home Sales
Fri 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4848. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4965, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5078 and potentially 5352.
If we cannot close above 4722, we could see a move back to test 4605 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4492, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4218.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6702 (+124 or +1.89%)
AUDUSD has seen a big move to the upside, will the momentum continue this week?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Wed 00:30 – USD Building Permits
Thur 02:00 – USD Existing Home Sales
Fri 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6717. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6752, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6777 and potentially 0.6827.
If we cannot close above 0.6677, we could see a move back to test 0.6652 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6627, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6577.
EUR/USD – 1.0896 (+132 or +1.23%)
The EURUSD is following the current USDollar weakness.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 21:00 – EUR CPI
Wed 00:30 – USD Building Permits
Thur 02:00 – USD Existing Home Sales
Fri 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0921. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0971, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1021 and potentially 1.1146.
If we cannot close above 1.0871, we could see a move back to test 1.0821 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0746, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0671.
GBP/USD – 1.2672 (+122 or +0.97%)
GBPUSD has closed higher this week following the current market trends.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 18:00 – GBP Retail Sales
Wed 00:30 – USD Building Permits
Thur 02:00 – USD Existing Home Sales
Fri 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2719. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2795, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2868 and potentially 1.2996.
If we cannot close above 1.2625, we could see a move back to test 1.2550 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2478, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2350.
USD/JPY – 142.41 (-253 or -1.75%)
After hitting the yearly highs, the USDJPY has seen a sharp decline.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:00 – JPY Interest Rate Decision
Wed 00:30 – USD Building Permits
Thur 02:00 – USD Existing Home Sales
Fri 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 142.77. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 143.13, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 143.64 and potentially 144.43.
If we cannot close above 142.08, we could see a move back to test 141.71 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 141.22, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 140.43.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2017 (+10 or +0.5%)
After breaking into new highs Gold has seen a slight retracement. Will the bulls find the support they need?
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2022. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2034, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2049 and potentially 2073.
If we cannot close above 2006, we could see a move back to test 1995 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1978, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1952.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 41231 (-2562 or -5.85%)
After a big rise in price Bitcoin has found a resistance level, will the momentum continue to the upside?
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 41343. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 41475, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 41631 and potentially 42077.
If we cannot close above 41109, we could see a move back to test 40977 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 40735, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 40289.
