This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up to the minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7380 (-41 or -0.55%)
The ASX closed the week slightly lower mainly due to a weak Friday, levels remain unchanged.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Statement
Fri 11:30 – RBA Monetary Policy Statement
For a move higher we would like to see the ASX close above 7400. Should this occur, a move into 7500 could be expected; and if momentum is strong we cannot rule out moves to 7600 and 7732.
Failure to close above 7400 means a potential move back into 7272. 7202 is the next support level down if 7091 doesn’t hold. If downside momentum is really strong then we could see a sharp move to 7000.
EUROPE
DAX – 15771 (+209 or +1.34%)
The DAX edged higher and is back within reach of all-time highs.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:00 – Retail Sales M/m
For the DAX to continue its move higher we would like to see it hold above 15585. Should this occur then 15800 is the next level ahead. If upside momentum is strong then 16000 and 16050 cannot be ruled out.
To the downside, should we not see it hold above 15585, we will look for a move into support at 15345. A strong break and close below this handle and 15050 is the next level down. If downside pressure mounts then 14810 cannot be ruled out.
US
S&P 500 – 4620 (+73 or +1.61%)
A strong weekly close at new highs and the SPX looks set to enter a new uptrend with clear skies ahead.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 01:00 – Ism Manufacturing PMI
Weds 01:00 – Ism Non-Manufacturing PMI
Thurs 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thurs 04:30 – Fed Press Conference
Fri 23:30 – Non Farm Payrolls
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 4600. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 4635, and if momentum is strong we cannot rule out moves to 4700.
If we cannot hold above 4600, we could see this market move down into 4577. A break of this level however may result in a quick move down to 4550, and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move back down to 4500.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7522 (+55 or +0.74%)
The Aussie Dollar trend higher continues and importantly has managed to gauge support at key levels on the way up.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Statement
Fri 11:30 – RBA Monetary Policy Statement
For a move higher this week, we would like to see it hold above 0.7500. We will then be targeting a move through 0.7560. If we see a strong break and close above this level then we can’t rule out a move to 0.7617.
If this market cannot hold above 0.7500, we could see a move down into 0.7423. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 0.7342, however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 0.7250.
EUR/USD – 1.1563 (-81 or -0.7%)
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thurs 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thurs 04:30 – Fed Press Conference
Fri 23:30 – Non Farm Payrolls
The Euro moved back to retest the recent lows as sellers sent a reminder that they remain in control.
For a move higher we would like to see the Euro hold above 1.1525. Should this occur we could see a move into 1.1615 before a pause. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.1738.
If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1525, we could see a move into 1.1425. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1325, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1238.
GBP/USD – 1.3693 (-62 or -0.45%)
The GBP moved lower on Friday to end the week slightly down after multiple failures at its 200 DMA.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thurs 23:00 – BoE Interest Rate Decision
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close 1.3755 before a break higher through 1.3865. If this market can see a strong close above this level we may then see a strong push back into 1.3910. If upside momentum is really strong then a move back into 1.4000 can’t be ruled out.
Should we fail to close above 1.3755, we will look for a move down to 1.3666. A break below this level however could see Cable further depreciate to 1.3620 by the week’s end and if momentum is very weak we cannot rule out a move to 1.3535.
USD/JPY – 113.98 (+49 or +0.43%)
The Dollar Yen spent the week sideways and is just pausing before deciding on it’s next move.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 01:00 – Ism Manufacturing PMI
Weds 01:00 – Ism Non-Manufacturing PMI
Thurs 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thurs 04:30 – Fed Press Conference
Fri 23:30 – Non Farm Payrolls
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market hold above 113.70. Should this occur we will look for a move into 114.55, and if upside momentum is strong we could see a move higher into 115.47 and potentially 116.11.
If we cannot hold above 113.70, we could see a move back to test 113.20 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 112.25, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 111.70.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1782 (-10 or -0.56%)
More sideways action for Gold and our levels remain unchanged.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thurs 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thurs 04:30 – Fed Press Conference
Fri 23:30 – Non Farm Payrolls
For a move higher we need to see this market close above 1786. Should this occur we could see a move back into 1814, and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 1850. If momentum is really strong then 1875 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot close above 1786, we will look for a move back down to 1756. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1740, and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a move to 1720.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 62380 (+5961 or +10.9%)
A rather nasty end to the week for Bitcoin after it had ripped through to new ATH’s – but will that weekly close below the previous ATH be telling?
For a move higher we must now see this market hold above 60000. Should this occur we could see a move into 63500 before retesting the ATH of 64920. If upside momentum is really strong then we can’t rule out 68350.
Failure to hold above 60000 could see a move down to 58000. If selling pressure takes control then we could see a move down to 55000. A close below this level and 50000 can’t be ruled out.
