This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up to the minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7304 (-20 or -0.27%)
Another week of mainly sideways price action and our levels remain unchanged.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 11:30 – RBA Meeting Minutes
Thurs 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX hold above 7272. Should this occur, a move back into 7400 could be expected; and if momentum is strong we cannot rule out moves to 7500.
Failure to hold above 7272 means a potential move back into 7202. 7091 is the next support level down if 6969 doesn’t hold. If downside momentum is really strong then we could see a sharp move to 6850.
EUROPE
DAX – 15524 (-172 or -1.1%)
The DAX struggled to get a clear break above the all time highs and endured a weak end to the week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thurs 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate Decision
Thurs 22:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference
Fri 17:30 – Markit Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMI
For the DAX to continue its move higher we would like to see it hold above 15500. Should this occur then 15782 is the next technical level ahead. If upside momentum really takes hold then 16000 cannot be ruled out.
To the downside, should we not see it hold above 15500, we will look for a move into support at 15345. A strong break and close below this handle and 15050 is the next level down. If downside pressure mounts then 14990 cannot be ruled out.
US
S&P 500 – 4328 (-47 or -1.07%)
The S&P closed lower as markets digested a hotter than expected inflation print mid-week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 22:30 – Building Permits & Housing Starts
Fri 00:00 – Existing Home Sales
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 4375. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 4400, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out moves to 4422 and 4450.
If we cannot close above 4375, we could see this market move down into 4300. A break of this level however may result in a quick move down to 4250, and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move back down to 4200.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7397 (-91 or -1.22%)
Another lower close on the weekly for the Aussie Dollar as sellers look to be in control.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 11:30 – RBA Meeting Minutes
Thurs 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
For a move higher this week, we would like to see it close above 0.7423. We will then be targeting a move back into 0.7500 where we may see a pause. If we see a strong break and close above this level then we can’t rule out a move to 0.7560.
If this market cannot close above 0.7423, we could see a move back down into 0.7343. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 0.7250, however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 0.7065.
EUR/USD – 1.1805 (-72 or -0.61%)
The Euro ended the week lower as concerns rise over an increase in the Delta variant across Europe. We will be discussing this in our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thurs 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate Decision
Thurs 22:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1833. Should this occur we could see a move into 1.1925 before a pause. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.2000; and if momentum is very strong, 1.2052 cannot be ruled out.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.1833, we could see a move into 1.1738. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1615, however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1500.
GBP/USD – 1.3765 (-133 or -0.96%)
The Cable erased all of the previous week’s gains and is now back to testing a key support level.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 16:00 – Retail Sales Y/y and M/m
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold 1.3755 before a break higher through 1.3865. If this market can see a strong close above this level we may then see a strong push back into 1.4000.
Should we fail to hold above 1.3755, we will look for a move down to 1.3666. A break below this level however could see Cable further depreciate to 1.3620 by the week’s end and if momentum is very weak we cannot rule out a move to 1.3535.
USD/JPY – 110.08 (-2 or -0.02%)
Almost as flat as it gets for the Dollar Yen and therefore our levels remain unchanged.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 22:30 – Building Permits & Housing Starts
Fri 00:00 – Existing Home Sales
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market hold above 111.0. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 111.70, and if momentum is very strong we could see a move higher into 112.25 and potentially 113.18.
If we cannot hold above 111.0, we could see a move back to test 110.38 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 109.68, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 109.21.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1814 (+7 or +0.39%)
A fourth weekly gain in a row despite this one being very marginal as Gold bulls look to push through resistance.
For a continued move higher we need to see this market hold above 1786. Should this occur we need to see a move through 1814; and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 1850. If momentum is really strong then 1875 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot hold above 1786, we will look for a move back down to 1756. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1720, and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a move to 1700.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 31325 (-1502 or -4.23%)
Bitcoin struggled to get above a key mid-range level last week as sellers look to keep control. However, downside support levels continue to hold.
For a move higher we must now see this market close above 35000. Should this occur we could see a move into 40000 before retesting 42000. If upside momentum is really strong then we can’t rule out 50000.
Failure to close above 35000 could see a move down to the lows around 30000. If selling pressure takes control then we could see a move down to 25700. A close below this level and 19000 can’t be ruled out.
