This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8142 (+28 or +0.35%)
AU200 has seen a slight upward movement, gaining 28 points, indicating a modest and steady bullish trend.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Services PMI (Sep)
Mon 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
Tue 14:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8162. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8183, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8204 and potentially 8244.
If we cannot close above 8122, we could see a move back to test 8101 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8081, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8040.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 18742 (+40 or +0.21%)
The DAX30 is showing a weak upward trend with a modest 40-point gain over the week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 17:15 – EUR HCOB Services PMI (Sep)
Mon 17:15 – EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
Tue 18:00 – EUR Ifo Business Climate (Sep)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 18789. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 18835, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 18881 and potentially 18976.
If we cannot close above 18694, we could see a move back to test 18648 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 18602, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 18507.
US
S&P 500 – 5709 (+76 or +1.35%)
The US500 shows a strong upward move this week, rising from 5633 to 5709, indicating solid bullish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
Thu 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Aug)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Aug)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5723. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5737, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5750 and potentially 5779.
If we cannot close above 5694, we could see a move back to test 5680 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5666, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5636.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6806 (+96 or +1.43%)
AUD/USD is trending upward with a moderate move, rising from 0.6710 to 0.6806, signaling steady bullish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Services PMI (Sep)
Mon 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
Tue 14:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
Thu 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Aug)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Aug)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6823. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6849, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6874 and potentially 0.6899.
If we cannot close above 0.6788, we could see a move back to test 0.6763 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6738, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6712.
EUR/USD – 1.1162 (+74 or +0.67%)
The EUR/USD is trending strongly upward this week, rising from 1.1088 to 1.1162, reflecting significant bullish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 17:15 – EUR HCOB Services PMI (Sep)
Mon 17:15 – EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
Tue 18:00 – EUR Ifo Business Climate (Sep)
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
Thu 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Aug)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Aug)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1182. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1212, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1242 and potentially 1.1287.
If we cannot close above 1.1137, we could see a move back to test 1.1107 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1092, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1037.
GBP/USD – 1.3317 (+182 or +1.39%)
The GBP/USD is trending strongly upward, with a significant move of 218 pips this week, indicating bullish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:30 – GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
Mon 18:30 – GBP S&P Global Services PMI (Sep)
Thu 17:30 – CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
Thu 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Aug)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Aug)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3342. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3373, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3404 and potentially 1.3440.
If we cannot close above 1.3292, we could see a move back to test 1.3263 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3232, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3270.
USD/JPY – 143.90 (+315 or +2.24%)
The USDJPY is experiencing a strong bullish trend, surging significantly with a move of 3.15 points this week!
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
Thu 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Aug)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Aug)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 144.00. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 144.70, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 145.35 and potentially 146.00.
If we cannot close above 143.75, we could see a move back to test 143.40 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 142.90, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 142.25.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2620 (+41 or +1.59%)
Gold is trending strongly upward with a notable increase of 41 points this week, signaling bullish momentum in the market.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2625.5. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2630.0, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2634.5 and potentially 2640.5.
If we cannot close above 2614.5, we could see a move back to test 2610.0 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2605.5, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2590.5.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 63490 (+4379 or +7.41%)
Bitcoin is surging with a strong upward move of 4,379, signalling bullish momentum.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 63538. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 63745, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 63953 and potentially 64073.
If we cannot close above 63443, we could see a move back to test 63245 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 63036, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 62888.
