This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up to the minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7092 (-168 or -2.31%)
The ASX has been rejected from the higher levels of the yearly trading range. Currently the price is trading near the middle mean of the past 12 months range.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – Monthly CPI Indicator
Thurs 11:30 – Retail Sales MoM
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7259.53. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7429.60, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7599.68 and potentially 7976.50.
If we cannot close above 6924.18, we could see a move back to test 6754.11 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6584.03, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6138.50.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 15849 (-431 or -2.65%)
After creating a new all time high last week, the DAX has retreated lower near the end of the week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 16:00 – Consumer Confidence
Fri 16:00 – Retail Sales YoY
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 16136. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 16624, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 17174 and potentially 18911.
If we cannot close above 15561, we could see a move back to test 15122 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 14673, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 13836.
US
S&P 500 – 4359 (-41 or -0.93%)
The SPX looks to be the start of a momentum move higher, but will the bulls be able to hold the ground?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 22:30 – Durable Goods Orders MoM
Wed 00:00 – New Home Sales MoM
Wed 23:30 – Fed Chair Powell Speech
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4510. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4620, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4730 and potentially 5280.
If we cannot close above 4280, we could see a move back to test 4180 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4070, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3740.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6683 (-189 or -2.75%)
After breaking resistance AUD has seen a strong pullback into the middle of the trading range.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – Monthly CPI Indicator MoM
Thur 11:30 – Retail Sales MoM
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.67094. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.67165, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.67297 and potentially 0.68013.
If we cannot close above 0.66526, we could see a move back to test 0.66394 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.66245, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.65419.
EUR/USD – 1.0906 (-29 or -0.27%)
The Euro has seen an increase in bullish momentum over the past few weeks.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM
Wed 00:00 – USD New Home Sales MoM
Wed 23:30 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0938. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0960, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0992 and potentially 1.1131.
If we cannot close above 1.0870, we could see a move back to test 1.0855 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0828, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0768.
GBP/USD – 1.2734 (-86 or -0.67%)
The Pound remains above last week’s highs, will the momentum continue higher?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM
Wed 00:00 – USD New Home Sales MoM
Wed 23:30 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.2768 before a break higher into 1.2792. If this market can see a strong close above this level, we may then see a strong pushback into 1.2816. If upside momentum is really strong, then a move back into 1.2875 can’t be ruled out.
Should we fail to hold above 1.2699, we will look for a move down to 1.2665. A break below this level, however, could see Cable further depreciate to 1.2631 by the week’s end. And if momentum is very weak, we cannot rule out a move to 1.2664.
USD/JPY – 143.57 (+177 or +1.25%)
The Dollar Yen’s continues its uptrend move.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM
Wed 00:00 – USD New Home Sales MoM
Wed 23:30 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
Thur 15:00 – JPY Consumer Confidence
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 143.91. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 144.30, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 144.81 and potentially 145.79.
If we cannot close above 143.54, we could see a move back to test 143.08 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 142.63, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 141.89.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1955 (-31 or -1.58%)
Gold closed almost completely flat.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Gold continues to move lower against the USDollar.
For a move higher, we need to see this market close above 1930. Should this occur we could see a move into 1935; and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 1939. If momentum is strong, then 2007 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot close above 1930, we can see a move down to 1922. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1920; and if momentum is very strong to the downside, we could see a move to 1895.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 26440 (+3778 or +14.29%)
Bitcoin hit the $30,000 level full of momentum, will this week see it continue or fizzle out?
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 30922.77. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 31476.09, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 31861.45 and potentially 32424.75.
If we cannot close above 29513.09, we could see a move back to test 28858.91 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 28153.35, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 25782.75.
20000 is the more psychological handle below that with an open gap.
