This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7811 (+67 or +0.87%)
The AU200 index is trending strongly upward, with a significant rise from 7744 to 7811 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Jul)
Tue 11:30 – AUD NAB Business Confidence (Jun)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7829. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7850, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7870 and potentially 7909.
If we cannot close above 7792, we could see a move back to test 7771 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7751, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7711.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 18470 (+93 or +0.51%)
The DAX index is trending upward, with a modest increase from 18377 to 18470 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 16:00 – EUR Balance of Trade (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 18516. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 18562, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 18608 and potentially 18699.
If we cannot close above 18423, we could see a move back to test 18377 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 18331, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 18239.
US
S&P 500 – 5563 (+83 or +1.51%)
The US500 index is trending strongly upward, with a significant rise from 5480 to 5563 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 01:00 – USD Fed Chair Powell Testimony
Thu 00:00 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/06)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5577. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5591, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5606 and potentially 5632.
If we cannot close above 5548, we could see a move back to test 5534 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5520, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5493.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6748 (+83 or +1.25%)
The AUDUSD is trending upward, with a notable rise from 0.6665 to 0.6748 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Jul)
Tue 11:30 – AUD NAB Business Confidence (Jun)
Wed 01:00 – USD Fed Chair Powell Testimony
Thu 00:00 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/06)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6682. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6698, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6714 and potentially 0.6748.
If we cannot close above 0.6648, we could see a move back to test 0.6632 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6616, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6582.
EUR/USD – 1.0827 (+71 or +0.66%)
The EURUSD is trending upward, with a solid rise from 1.0756 to 1.0827 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 16:00 – EUR Balance of Trade (May)
Wed 01:00 – USD Fed Chair Powell Testimony
Thu 00:00 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/06)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0854. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0881, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0904 and potentially 1.0971.
If we cannot close above 1.0800, we could see a move back to test 1.0773 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0750, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0703.
GBP/USD – 1.2807 (+149 or +1.18%)
The GBPUSD is trending strongly upward, with a significant increase from 1.2658 to 1.2807 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 09:01 – GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Jun)
Thu 16:00 – GBP GDP MoM (May)
Thu 16:00 – GBP Goods Trade Balance (May)
Wed 01:00 – USD Fed Chair Powell Testimony
Thu 00:00 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/06)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2838. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2869, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2896 and potentially 1.2963.
If we cannot close above 1.2776, we could see a move back to test 1.2745 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2718, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2669.
USD/JPY – 160.58 (-53 or -0.33%)
The USDJPY is trending weaker, with a decline from 161.11 to 160.58 observed this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 01:00 – USD Fed Chair Powell Testimony
Thu 00:00 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/06)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 160.99. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 161.32, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 161.60 and potentially 162.02.
If we cannot close above 160.36, we could see a move back to test 160.03 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 159.75, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 159.11.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2385 (+63 or +2.71%)
Gold is trending strongly upwards, with a significant rise from 2322 to 2385 observed this week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2391. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2403, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2419 and potentially 2444.
If we cannot close above 2379, we could see a move back to test 2367 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2351, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2326.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 55262 (-7654 or -12.1%)
Bitcoin is trending sharply lower, plummeting from 63280 to 55626 this week, indicating significant bearish momentum in the market.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 55770. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 55908, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 56060 and potentially 56332.
If we cannot close above 55482, we could see a move back to test 55344 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 55192, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 54800.
