This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7794 (-5 or -0.06%)
The AU200 shows a slight decline, moving from 7799 to 7794, indicating a weak downward trend.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Jun)
Wed 11:30 – AUD Monthly CPI Indicator (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7813. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7833, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7853 and potentially 7886.
If we cannot close above 7775, we could see a move back to test 7755 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7736, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7698.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 18203 (-320 or -1.73%)
The DAX shows a significant decline from 18523 to 18203, indicating a strong downward trend.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:00 – EUR Ifo Business Climate (Jun)
Wed 16:00 – EUR GfK Consumer Confidence (Jul)
Wed 18:00 – EUR Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Thu 17:00 – EUR Retail Sales MoM (May)
Thu 17:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (May)
Fri 16:45 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Jun)
Fri 17:55 – EUR Unemployment Change (Jun)
Fri 17:55 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Jun)
Fri 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (Apr)
Fri 19:00 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Jun)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 18248. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 18294, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 18340 and potentially 18431.
If we cannot close above 18158, we could see a move back to test 18112 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 18067, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 17976.
US
S&P 500 – 5478 (+114 or +2.13%)
The US500 shows a strong upward trend, rising significantly from 5364 to 5478, indicating robust bullish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 00:00 – USD New Home Sales MoM (May)
Thu 00:00 – USD New Home Sales (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Goods Trade Balance (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/22)
Thu 22:30 – USD Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun/15)
Thu 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1)
Thu 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Jun/22)
Fri 22:30 – USD Personal Income MoM (May)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (May)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index MoM (May)
Fri 22:30 – USD Personal Spending MoM (May)
Sat 00:00 – USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5492. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5505, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5519 and potentially 5546.
If we cannot close above 5463, we could see a move back to test 5450 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5436, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5409.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6636 (+34 or +0.51%)
The AUDUSD shows a slight upward trend, rising from 0.6602 to 0.6636, indicating moderate bullish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Jun)
Wed 11:30 – AUD Monthly CPI Indicator (May)
Thu 00:00 – USD New Home Sales MoM (May)
Thu 00:00 – USD New Home Sales (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Goods Trade Balance (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/22)
Thu 22:30 – USD Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun/15)
Thu 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1)
Thu 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Jun/22)
Fri 22:30 – USD Personal Income MoM (May)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (May)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index MoM (May)
Fri 22:30 – USD Personal Spending MoM (May)
Sat 00:00 – USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6653. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6669, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6684 and potentially 0.6719.
If we cannot close above 0.6619, we could see a move back to test 0.6603 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6587, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6553.
EUR/USD – 1.0688 (-74 or -0.69%)
The EURUSD shows a moderate downward trend, declining from 1.0762 to 1.0688, indicating a bearish move in the market.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:00 – EUR Ifo Business Climate (Jun)
Wed 16:00 – EUR GfK Consumer Confidence (Jul)
Wed 18:00 – EUR Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Thu 17:00 – EUR Retail Sales MoM (May)
Thu 17:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (May)
Fri 16:45 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Jun)
Fri 17:55 – EUR Unemployment Change (Jun)
Fri 17:55 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Jun)
Fri 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (Apr)
Fri 19:00 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Jun)
Thu 00:00 – USD New Home Sales MoM (May)
Thu 00:00 – USD New Home Sales (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Goods Trade Balance (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/22)
Thu 22:30 – USD Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun/15)
Thu 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1)
Thu 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Jun/22)
Fri 22:30 – USD Personal Income MoM (May)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (May)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index MoM (May)
Fri 22:30 – USD Personal Spending MoM (May)
Sat 00:00 – USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0714. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0742, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0770 and potentially 1.0849.
If we cannot close above 1.0662, we could see a move back to test 1.0635 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0607, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0530.
GBP/USD – 1.2641 (-86 or -0.68%)
The GBPUSD chart shows a notable decline, moving from 1.2727 to 1.2641, indicating a strong bearish trend in the market.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 00:00 – USD New Home Sales MoM (May)
Thu 00:00 – USD New Home Sales (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Goods Trade Balance (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/22)
Thu 22:30 – USD Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun/15)
Thu 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1)
Thu 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Jun/22)
Fri 22:30 – USD Personal Income MoM (May)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (May)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index MoM (May)
Fri 22:30 – USD Personal Spending MoM (May)
Sat 00:00 – USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2671. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2697, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2723 and potentially 1.2788.
If we cannot close above 1.2611, we could see a move back to test 1.2586 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2560, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2588.
USD/JPY – 159.87 (+270 or +1.72%)
The USDJPY chart shows a strong upward trend, rising from 157.17 to 159.87, indicating significant bullish momentum in the market.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 00:00 – USD New Home Sales MoM (May)
Thu 00:00 – USD New Home Sales (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Goods Trade Balance (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/22)
Thu 22:30 – USD Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun/15)
Thu 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1)
Thu 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Jun/22)
Fri 22:30 – USD Personal Income MoM (May)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (May)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index MoM (May)
Fri 22:30 – USD Personal Spending MoM (May)
Sat 00:00 – USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 157.93. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 158.33, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 158.72 and potentially 159.51.
If we cannot close above 157.93, we could see a move back to test 158.33 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 158.72, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 159.51.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2319 (+8 or +0.35%)
Gold shows a moderate upward trend, increasing from 2311 to 2319, indicating steady bullish movement in the market.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2325. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2332, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2338 and potentially 2348.
If we cannot close above 2313, we could see a move back to test 2306 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2300, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2294.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 63203 (-6252 or -9%)
Bitcoin shows a significant downward trend, dropping from 69455 to 63203, indicating a notable bearish movement in the market.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 63477. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 63692, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 63908 and potentially 64433.
If we cannot close above 63047, we could see a move back to test 62832 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 62617, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 62192.
