This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up to the minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7015 ( -26 or -0.37% )
The ASX again closed slightly down on the week but could that double bottom on the daily timeframe suggest a move higher from here? We will be discussing this in our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX close above 7091. Should this occur, a move to the all time highs at 7202 should be expected; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out moves to 7272.
Failure to close above 7091 means a potential move back into 6969. 6850 is the next support level down if 6969 doesn’t hold. If downside momentum is really strong then we could see a sharp move to 6804.
EUROPE
DAX – 15447 (-20 or -0.13% )
Another choppy week ended relatively flat for the DAX but it continues to hold onto key support.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 07:00 – EU Leaders Summit
Tues 16:00 – GDP Q/q
Tues 18:30 – IFO Business Climate
For the DAX to continue its move higher we first want to see it hold above 15345. Should this occur then 15500 is the next technical level ahead. If upside momentum really takes hold then 15782 cannot be ruled out.
To the downside, should we see a rejection from 15345, we will look for a move into support at 15050. A strong break and close below this handle and 14990 is the next leg down. If downside pressure mounts then 14790 cannot be ruled out.
US
S&P 500 – 4160 (-17 or -0.41% )
The S&P was down for the second week in a row but the bulls continue to hold the trend line – for now. We will be discussing this in our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Weds 00:00 – New Home Sales and Cb Consumer Confidence Index
Thurs 22:30 – GDP Q/q and Core Durable Goods Orders M/m
Fri 00:00 – Pending Home Sales M/m
Fri 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index M/m & Y/y
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 4200. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 4252; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out moves to 4300 and 4435.
If we cannot close above 4200, we could see this market move back down into 4155. A break of this level however may result in a quick move down to 4117; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move back down to 4050.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7730(-50 or -0.64%)
Another sideways week for the Aussie Dollar which ended marginally down. We will discuss this further inside our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
For a move higher this week we would like to see it hold above 0.7729. We will then be targeting a move back into 0.7823. If we see a strong break and close above this level then we can’t rule out a move to 0.7997.
If this market cannot hold above 0.7729, we could see a move back down into 0.7660 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 0.7562, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 0.7500.
EUR/USD – 1.2179 (+34 or +0.28%)
The Euro gained slightly for the week as it rallied through resistance – are we in for a test of the 2021 highs from here?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 07:00 – EU Leaders Summit
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.2170. Should this occur we could see a move into 1.2222. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.2353; and if momentum is very strong, 1.2483 cannot be ruled out.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.2170, we could see a move back down into 1.2113 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.2000, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1925.
GBP/USD – 1.4148 ( +53 or +0.38%)
The Cable continues to trend higher and almost touched the yearly high on Friday – can it breakthrough this week? We will be discussing this in our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.4125, before a break higher through 1.4250. If this market can see a strong close above this level we may then see a strong push into 1.4375.
Should we fail to hold above 1.4125, we will look for a move down to 1.4000. A break below this level however could see Cable further depreciate to 1.3865 by the week’s end and if momentum is very weak we cannot rule out a move to 1.3755.
USD/JPY – 108.96 (-39 or -0.36% )
The Dollar Yen managed to hold onto key support throughout the week with JPY showing some weakness from a worsening virus situation. We will be discussing this further in our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Weds 00:00 – U.S. New Home Sales and Cb Consumer Confidence Index
Thurs 22:30 – U.S. GDP Q/q and Core Durable Goods Orders M/m
Fri 00:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales M/m
Fri 09:30 – Japan Unemployment Rate
Fri 22:30 – U.S Core PCE Price Index M/m & Y/y
For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 109.21. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 109.68, and if momentum is very strong we could see a move higher into 109.94 and potentially 110.38.
If we cannot close above 109.21, we could see a move back to test 108.60 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 107.81; and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 106.97.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1881 (+38 or +2.06%)
Gold looks to have broken out with a weekly close above channel resistance – is this the start of a trend higher for the yellow metal? We will be discussing this throughout the week in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
For a continued move higher we need to see this market hold above 1875. Should this occur we will move into 1905; and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 1930. If momentum is really strong then 1960 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot hold above 1875, we will look for a move back down to 1850. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1800; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a move to 1786.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 35162 ( -13744 or -28.1% )
An incredibly volatile week saw Bitcoin drag the entire crypto market lower with some substantial losses – we are watching some key technical levels for the next move and will be discussing this in our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
For a move higher we must now see this market hold above 35000. Should this occur we could see a move into 40000 before retesting 42000. If upside momentum is really strong then we can’t rule out 50000.
Failure to hold at 35000 could see a move down to the lows at 30000. If selling pressure takes control then we could see a move down to 25700. A close below this level and 1900 can’t be ruled out.
