This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up to the minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7536 (+32 or +0.43%)
The ASX finished the week strong to close near the previous week’s high – can it break through the resistance?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
For a move higher we would like to see the ASX hold above 7485. Should this occur, a move into 7545 could be expected; and if momentum is strong we cannot rule out moves to 7640 and 7800.
Failure to hold above 7485 means a potential move back into 7400. 7272 is the next support level down if 7485 doesn’t hold. If downside momentum is really strong then we could see another leg down into 7200.
EUROPE
DAX – 14095 (-140 or -0.98%)
The DAX continues to struggle to find a strong enough bid as it grinds lower again.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 17:30 – German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
Fri 23:00 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
For the DAX to move higher we would like to see it close above 14140. Should this occur then 14780 is the next level ahead. If upside momentum is strong then 15050 and 15345 cannot be ruled out.
To the downside, should we not see it close above 14140, we will look for a move into support at 13610. A strong break and close below this handle and 13250 is the next level down. If downside pressure mounts then 12445 cannot be ruled out.
US
S&P 500 – 4377 (-107 or -2.39%)
Sellers remain in control of US equities as the SPX moves lower again.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thurs 00:00 – Existing Home Sales
Fri 03:00 – Fed Chair Powell Speaks
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 4375. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 4430; and if momentum is strong we cannot rule out moves to 4480 and 4655.
If we cannot hold above 4375, we could see this market move down into 4330. A break of this level however may result in a quick move down to 4285, and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move back down to 4235.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7350 (-110 or -1.47%)
The Aussie Dollar sank on Easter Monday to add misery for bulls who have been unable to sustain the recent trend higher.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
For a move higher this week, we would like to see it close above 0.7392. We will then be targeting a move through 0.7475. If we see a strong break and close above this level then we can’t rule out a move to 0.7530. Should momentum to the upside be really strong then 0.7600 could be targeted.
If this market cannot close above 0.7392, we could see a move down into 0.7345. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 0.7285, however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 0.7250.
EUR/USD – 1.0780 (-96 or -0.88%)
Another break of the yearly low for the Euro as USD bulls are in full control.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 17:30 – German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
Fri 23:00 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
For a move higher we would like to see the Euro hold above 1.0780. Should this occur we could see a move into 1.1105. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.1155 and 1.1225.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.0780, we will see a move into 1.0720. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.0575, however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.0495.
GBP/USD – 1.3012 (-23 or -0.18%)
The Cable held up better than the AUD and EUR to finish the week almost flat.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 02:30 – BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
Fri 16:00 – Retail Sales M/m
Sat 00:30 – BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.3056 before a break higher into 1.3198. If this market can see a strong close above this level we may then see a strong push back into 1.3290. If upside momentum is really strong then a move back into 1.3435 can’t be ruled out.
Should we fail to close above 1.3056, we will look for a move down to 1.2980. A break below this level however could see Cable further depreciate to 1.2855 by the week’s end and if momentum is very weak we cannot rule out a move to 1.2765.
USD/JPY – 126.89 (+435 or +3.55%)
Another rip higher for the USDJPY as the divergence between the US and Japan’s central banks continues to be the trade.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thurs 00:00 – Existing Home Sales
Fri 03:00 – Fed Chair Powell Speaks
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market hold above 125.85. Should this occur we will look for a move into 127, and if upside momentum is strong we could see a move higher into 127.75 and potentially 129.
If we cannot hold above 125.85, we could see a move back to test 125.20 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 123.65, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 121.75.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1977(+32 or +1.65%)
Gold is looking to break to the upside again, can we see the move supported?
For a move higher we need to see this market hold above 1965. Should this occur we could see a move back into 2000, and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 2015. If momentum is strong then 2075 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot hold above 1965, we will look for a move back down to 1915. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1900, and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a move to 1875.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 40777 (-2391 or -5.54%)
BTC dropped below its key Moving Averages as the risk-off trade continues – we continue to monitor the correlation with the Nasdaq.
For a move higher we must now see this market close above 39839. Should this occur we could see a move into 43233 before retesting 48570. If upside momentum is really strong then we can’t rule out 50000.
Failure to hold above 39839 could see a move down to 35050. If selling pressure takes control then we could see a move down to 32300. A close below this level and 29300 can’t be ruled out, maybe even a 28500 print.
