This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8448 (+197 or +2.39%)
The AU200 shows a strong bullish trend this week with a significant rise from 8251 to 8448.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – AUD Monthly CPI Indicator (Oct)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8469. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8489, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8509 and potentially 8553.
If we cannot close above 8427, we could see a move back to test 8407 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8387, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8343.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 19425 (+187 or +0.97%)
The DAX30 is trending upward with a moderate gain, reflecting steady bullish momentum over the week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:00 – EUR Ifo Business Climate (Nov)
Fri 18:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (Oct)
Fri 19:55 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Nov)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 19473. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 19522, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 19571 and potentially 19667.
If we cannot close above 19377, we could see a move back to test 19328 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 19279, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 19183.
US
S&P 500 – 5993 (+117 or +1.99%)
The US500 shows a strong upward trend this week, with a significant move from 5876 to 5993, reflecting bullish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 02:00 – USD New Home Sales MoM (Oct)
Wed 06:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thu 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6008. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6023, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6038 and potentially 6068.
If we cannot close above 5978, we could see a move back to test 5963 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5948, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5918.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6535 (+74 or +1.15%)
AUDUSD is trending higher with a moderate upside move, gaining strength as it approaches key resistance levels near recent highs.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – AUD Monthly CPI Indicator (Oct)
Wed 02:00 – USD New Home Sales MoM (Oct)
Wed 06:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thu 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6551. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6568, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6584 and potentially 0.6616.
If we cannot close above 0.6519, we could see a move back to test 0.6502 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6486, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6454.
EUR/USD – 1.0476 (-60 or -0.57%)
EURUSD has seen a moderate bearish move, declining to 1.0476 from 1.0536, indicating continued selling pressure in the market.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:00 – EUR Ifo Business Climate (Nov)
Fri 18:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (Oct)
Fri 19:55 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Nov)
Wed 02:00 – USD New Home Sales MoM (Oct)
Wed 06:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thu 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0500. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0531, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0562 and potentially 1.0615.
If we cannot close above 1.0451, we could see a move back to test 1.0420 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0390, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0347.
GBP/USD – 1.2593 (-25 or -0.2%)
The GBPUSD is showing a weak downward trend, with a small decline of 0.0025 over the past week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 02:00 – USD New Home Sales MoM (Oct)
Wed 06:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thu 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2611. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2638, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2665 and potentially 1.2716.
If we cannot close above 1.2565, we could see a move back to test 1.2540 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2513, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2471.
USD/JPY – 153.76 (-91 or -0.59%)
The USDJPY is showing a bearish trend with a notable drop, declining from 154.67 to 153.76 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 16:00 – JPY Consumer Confidence (Nov)
Wed 02:00 – USD New Home Sales MoM (Oct)
Wed 06:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thu 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 154.03. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 154.79, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 155.55 and potentially 157.20.
If we cannot close above 153.29, we could see a move back to test 152.53 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 151.77, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 150.12.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2701 (+131 or +5.1%)
Gold has surged strongly from 2570 to 2701, a significant move showing strong bullish momentum this week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2715. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2730, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2744 and potentially 2776.
If we cannot close above 2687, we could see a move back to test 2652 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2627, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2594.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 97191 (+7673 or +8.57%)
Bitcoin has surged significantly this week, jumping over 7,000 points, indicating strong bullish momentum and an exciting uptrend.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 97,967. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 98,743, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 99,519 and potentially 101,498.
If we cannot close above 97,467, we could see a move back to test 96,491 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 95,715, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 93,736.
