This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
IINDICES
A
ASX – 8954 (-92 or -1.02%)
The ASX slipped this week, posting a -1.02% decline and showing clear bearish pressure compared to last week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
Wed 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Services PMI (Aug)
Wed 11:30 – AUD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8976. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8998, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 9021 and potentially 9065.
If we cannot close above 8931, we could see a move back to test 8909 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8886, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8842.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 23996 (-343 or -1.41%)
The DAX dropped sharply this week, falling -1.41% and signaling notable downside momentum after last week’s levels.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 17:00 – EUR Unemployment Change (Aug)
Tue 19:00 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Aug)
Fri 18:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 24055. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 24115, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 24175 and potentially 24295.
If we cannot close above 23936, we could see a move back to test 23876 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 23816, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23696.
US
S&P 500 – 6477 (+13 or +0.2%)
The SPX edged higher this week, gaining +0.20% and showing mild bullish strength compared to last week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 22:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls (Aug)
Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate (Aug)
Fri 00:00 – USD ISM Services PMI (Aug)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6493. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6509, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6525 and potentially 6557.
If we cannot close above 6460, we could see a move back to test 6444 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6428, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6396.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6543 (+62 or +0.96%)
AUDUSD climbed this week, advancing +0.96% and maintaining steady upward momentum against the prior week’s close.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
Wed 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Services PMI (Aug)
Wed 11:30 – AUD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
Fri 22:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls (Aug)
Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate (Aug)
Fri 00:00 – USD ISM Services PMI (Aug)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6559. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6575, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6592 and potentially 0.6624.
If we cannot close above 0.6526, we could see a move back to test 0.6510 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6493, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6461.
EUR/USD – 1.1689 (-7 or -0.06%)
EURUSD eased slightly this week, slipping -0.06% and showing muted bearish pressure compared to last week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 17:00 – EUR Unemployment Change (Aug)
Tue 19:00 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Aug)
Fri 18:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (Jul)
Fri 22:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls (Aug)
Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate (Aug)
Fri 00:00 – USD ISM Services PMI (Aug)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1718. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1747, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1776 and potentially 1.1835.
If we cannot close above 1.1659, we could see a move back to test 1.1630 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1601, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1542.
GBP/USD – 1.3503 (+6 or +0.04%)
GBPUSD was steady this week, inching up +0.04% and holding near last week’s levels with little directional conviction.
Mon 18:30 – GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
Fri 16:00 – GBP Retail Sales MoM (Jul)
Fri 16:00 – GBP Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY (Jul)
Fri 22:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls (Aug)
Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate (Aug)
Fri 00:00 – USD ISM Services PMI (Aug)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3536. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3570, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3604 and potentially 1.3671.
If we cannot close above 1.3469, we could see a move back to test 1.3435 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3401, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3334.
USD/JPY – 147.10 (-37 or -0.25%)
USDJPY pulled back this week, dropping -0.25% and showing light bearish movement compared to last week’s close.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:50 – JPY Capital Spending YoY (Q2)
Fri 09:30 – JPY Household Spending YoY (Jul)
Fri 09:30 – JPY Household Spending MoM (Jul)
Fri 22:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls (Aug)
Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate (Aug)
Fri 00:00 – USD ISM Services PMI (Aug)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 147.46. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 147.83, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 148.20 and potentially 148.93.
If we cannot close above 146.73, we could see a move back to test 146.36 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 145.99, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 145.26.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 3450 (+85 or +2.53%)
Gold surged higher this week, rallying +2.53% and displaying strong bullish momentum compared to the prior week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 3458. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3467, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3475 and potentially 3493.
If we cannot close above 3441, we could see a move back to test 3432 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3424, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3406.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 108552 (-4304 or -3.81%)
Bitcoin plunged this week, tumbling -3.81% and showing heavy bearish momentum after last week’s levels.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 108823. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 109094, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 109366 and potentially 109908.
If we cannot close above 108280, we could see a move back to test 108009 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 107737, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 107195.
