This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
IINDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8676 (+121 or +1.41%)
AU200 moves +121 points, strong bullish momentum emerging as the index pushes toward new highs.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Thu 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
Thu 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8697. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8720, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8745 and potentially 8784.
If we cannot close above 8655, we could see a move back to test 8632 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8608, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8567.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 24226 (+149 or +0.62%)
Modest gain of +149 points shows steady strength, but momentum still appears contained for now.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:15 – EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision
Thu 22:45 – EUR ECB Press Conference
Fri 18:00 – EUR Ifo Business Climate (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 24286. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 24347, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 24407 and potentially 24529.
If we cannot close above 24166, we could see a move back to test 24105 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 24045, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23923.
US
S&P 500 – 6304 (+73 or +1.17%)
Solid rally of +73 points signals renewed confidence in risk assets — bullish outlook remains intact.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 22:30 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/19)
Thu 23:45 – USD S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6320. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6335, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6350 and potentially 6382.
If we cannot close above 6287, we could see a move back to test 6272 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6256, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6224.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6505 (-67 or -1.02%)
AUD weakens sharply, dropping -67 points — sellers in control as sentiment turns risk-off.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Thu 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
Thu 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
Tue 22:30 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/19)
Thu 23:45 – USD S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6521. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6537, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6553 and potentially 6586.
If we cannot close above 6488, we could see a move back to test 6472 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6456, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6423.
EUR/USD – 1.1621 (-52 or -0.45%)
Mild downside in EUR, slipping -52 points — trend softens as dollar strength weighs.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:15 – EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision
Thu 22:45 – EUR ECB Press Conference
Fri 18:00 – EUR Ifo Business Climate (Jul)
Tue 22:30 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/19)
Thu 23:45 – USD S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 11650. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 11679, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 11709 and potentially 11777.
If we cannot close above 11591, we could see a move back to test 11562 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 11532, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 11464.
GBP/USD – 1.3413 (-74 or -0.55%)
GBP dips -74 points — moderate weakness as traders reassess macro and rate expectations.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 18:30 – GBP S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
Fri 16:00 – GBP Retail Sales MoM (Jun)
Fri 16:00 – GBP Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM (Jun)
Tue 22:30 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/19)
Thu 23:45 – USD S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 13446. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 13480, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 13513 and potentially 13580.
If we cannot close above 13379, we could see a move back to test 13345 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 13312, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 13245.
USD/JPY – 148.46 (+117 or +0.79%)
JPY rallies +117 points — safe-haven flows or carry unwind may be supporting yen strength.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – JPY BoJ Uchida Speech
Thu 10:30 – JPY Jibun Bank Services PMI (Jul)
Thu 10:30 – JPY Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
Tue 22:30 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/19)
Thu 23:45 – USD S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 14883. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 14920, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 14957 and potentially 15040.
If we cannot close above 14808, we could see a move back to test 14771 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 14734, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 14651.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 3356 (-11 or -0.33%)
Gold dips slightly by -11 — mild pullback, but still range-bound overall.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 3364. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3372, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3379 and potentially 3397.
If we cannot close above 3347, we could see a move back to test 3339 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3331, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3313.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 117806 (-799 or -0.67%)
BTC slips -799 — slight weakness but still trading within familiar range.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 118100. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 118495, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 118890 and potentially 119679.
If we cannot close above 117511, we could see a move back to test 117116 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 116721, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 115932.
