This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7635 (+43 or +0.57%)
The ASX has made all time highs, will the momentum continue?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 11:30 – AUD Balance of Trade
Tue 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales
Tue 14:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7661. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7708, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7754 and potentially 7843.
If we cannot close above 7640, we could see a move back to test 7584 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7529, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7430.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 16940(+24 or +0.14%)
The DAX is sitting in uncharted territory.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:00 – EUR PMI
Tue 21:00 – EUR Retail Sales
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 16990. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 17090, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 17165 and potentially 17315.
If we cannot close above 16940, we could see a move back to test 16815 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 16715, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 16565.
US
S&P 500 – 4957 (+76 or +1.56%)
The SPX500 has made all time highs continuing its upward momentum. Will we see 5,000 in the coming days?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 01:45 – USD PMI
Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5070. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5203, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5341 and potentially 5670.
If we cannot close above 4955, we could see a move back to test 4818 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4679, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4321.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6505(-69 or -1.05%)
AUDUSD has seen a big move to the downside after a strong resistance level at 0.66
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 11:30 – AUD Balance of Trade
Tue 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales
Tue 14:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Tue 01:45 – USD PMI
Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6521. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6556, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6581 and potentially 0.6656.
If we cannot close above 0.6489, we could see a move back to test 0.6460 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6430, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6430.
EUR/USD – 1.0775 (-68 or -0.63%)
EURUSD is currently moving down following the current USD trends.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:00 – EUR PMI
Tue 21:00 – EUR Retail Sales
Tue 01:45 – USD PMI
Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0802. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0829, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0861 and potentially 1.0934.
If we cannot close above 1.0748, we could see a move back to test 1.0721 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0699, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0650.
GBP/USD – 1.2615 (-80 or -0.63%)
GBPUSD has formed a resistance level at 1.28, followed by a bearish engulfing after USD news.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 01:45 – USD PMI
Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2646. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2707, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2779 and potentially 1.2894.
If we cannot close above 1.2584, we could see a move back to test 1.2523 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2451, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2381.
USD/JPY – 148.45 (+32 or +0.22%)
Continuing with the current USDollar trend, USDJPY has seen a big Friday close.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 01:45 – USD PMI
Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 148.84. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 149.23, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 149.62 and potentially 150.91.
If we cannot close above 148.06, we could see a move back to test 147.67 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 147.28, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 146.17.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2039 (+18 or +0.89%)
Gold has stabilised around the 2030 level.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2088. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2147, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2206 and potentially 2324.
If we cannot close above 2034, we could see a move back to test 1980 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1925, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1777.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 42551 (+520 or +1.24%)
BTCUSD has found support at 40,000.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 42661. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 42871, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 43146 and potentially 43689.
If we cannot close above 42441, we could see a move back to test 42181 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 41884, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 41382.
